Sinokor WhatsApp Signals Drive 1,600% VLCC Rate Surge

Rates for very-large crude carriers have surged more than 1,600% this year as the Iran war disrupted Strait of Hormuz traffic, making Sinokor Group’s WhatsApp messages a key signal for the oil-tanker market.

South Korea’s Sinokor, controlled by tycoon Ga-Hyun Chung, is the world’s biggest supertanker owner after a fleet buying spree backed by Mediterranean Shipping Co. (MSC).

Messages begin, “Dear Ladies and Gentlemen.” Some list the vessel, counterparty and eyewater price; others report negotiations. Brokers discuss them within minutes, and the Baltic Exchange benchmark often jumps within days.

Joel Grau, chief executive of shipping insurer Zostera Marine and a professor at the National Maritime College of Ireland, said Sinokor has “a huge influence on the market dynamics and the fundamentals of what’s happening on the VLCC market.”

Private fixtures now reset public prices. Owners gain from each reset; charterers face rapid repricing; forwarders lose a dependable yardstick when messages become the clearest transaction evidence.

What changed in March?

On March 12, two weeks into the war, Sinokor said it had hired a ship from the UAE port of Zirku to Asia at at least 700 Worldscale points; the Baltic assessed 348.89 that day. Worldscale standardizes tanker freight comparisons across routes.

Sinokor’s prewar spree left Chung with unprecedented influence and positioned it for war premiums. Brokers used a functioning Saudi Red Sea port after a Saudi loading port became inaccessible, but the Baltic insisted TD3C retain Gulf loadings.

By March 16, TD3C jumped to almost 600 Worldscale points, or $602,000 a day, as assessors struggled with a stalled route and saw few deals beyond Sinokor’s notice. Prices then swung violently.

Can TD3C price a route with few normal voyages?

London hearings began this week in Mercuria Energy Group’s late-April suit against the Baltic Exchange, alleging distortions that caused hundreds of millions of dollars in losses. In May, its lawyers said it was not seeking payment from the exchange; it later removed the loss figure. Mercuria seeks immediate and, failing that, retrospective suspension.

Mercuria’s case does not accuse Sinokor. It says the near-cessation of normal Hormuz shipments removed the basis for TD3C, which prices oil from inside the Persian Gulf to China, and that early-war crossings should not qualify as fixtures. Mercuria and at least one other participant have complained to the UK Financial Conduct Authority.

The Baltic publishes TD3C just after 4 p.m. London time from nine brokers’ assessments, not trades, and can seek justification for figures. It replaced the Japan-linked TD3 about a decade ago as China became the dominant importer; long-term VLCC contracts, including voyages outside the region, use TD3C as a reference.

In a March filing, TD3C assessor Christopher Loveday asked if the Baltic had legal advice on the questionable market and warned of issues like Libor. Mercuria alleges no Libor-style wrongdoing, and no regulator alleges any.

TD3C prices billions of dollars in derivatives, but open interest is falling as users shift to TD34, which covers voyages from just outside Hormuz to Asia.

Owned by Singapore Exchange Ltd., the Baltic says it considered continuing TD3C carefully. Lawyers say retrospective suspension would discard more than eight months of pricing, lack precedent and risk chaotic derivatives-market consequences.

The FCA cannot discuss individual firms but has monitored the war’s impact since the conflict began. Mercuria and the Baltic declined to comment; Sinokor did not respond.

Why do private notices move freight rates?

A real supply squeeze supports rates: vessels take longer or unusual routes, wait outside the Gulf for cargo or repair missile and drone damage. Iran’s attacks compound the disruption.

By summer, a “dark shuttle” system emerged: dedicated tankers returned at night and transferred oil to empty ships outside the Gulf. Sinokor became a major Hormuz operator, carrying an estimated 37% of the oil passing through the strait last month. These crossings helped prevent forecasts of $200-per-barrel crude from materializing.

Equasis lists Sinokor as manager of 83 supertankers; industry figures put control higher with charters. On global average earnings, those 83 could have generated $143 million per month last year, $509 million in July, $1.4 billion in September and $2.1 billion in October at the month-to-date average.

The estimate excludes route mix, costs and off-hire days; some tankers have been hit and need repairs. Sinokor’s total 2025 revenue was $5.5 billion, including its container-shipping arm.

After an interim US-Iran peace deal lowered perceived attack risk in Hormuz, TD3C retreated in late July. Industry insiders call Sinokor’s notices “blasts”; Chung’s sprawling WhatsApp groups include brokers or counterparties and many Sinokor employees.

• Sinokor reported a late-July fixture at 465 Worldscale points, about 60 points above the day’s assessment and worth just over $60,000 a day.
• It sent at least five notices in August, each at a higher rate. On Aug. 21, it reported 1,350 points, almost triple the level just under a month earlier.
• TD3C rose from around 400 points in late July to almost 1,320 in October. Supertankers tied to the index were then earning more than $1.4 million a day.

Sinokor’s messages have become less frequent since summer, yet can omit who pays for insurance or specify a destination only loosely. Most Middle East ships have stopped broadcasting the satellite signals that normally reveal their movements.

Tracking confirms some advertised voyages; at least one ship booked for a Middle East-to-Asia run in early August remained in the Indian Ocean and Persian Gulf. Private route changes and failed fixtures can explain gaps, but make public pricing harder to verify.

Halvor Ellefsen, a director at Fearnleys Shipbrokers UK Ltd., said: “There is an element of trust when you are determining the price of shipping oil.” He said dominant-player notices without contract detail have