Transpacific Spot Rates Slide as Carriers' November Hikes Look 'Doomed'

Spot rates on the transpacific eastbound trade fell 6% week on week to $7,514 per 40ft on Shanghai-Los Angeles, Drewry's World Container Index showed — the steepest one-week drop since June 2025, as this year's protracted peak season came to a close.

Shanghai-New York slipped 5%, to $9,631 per 40ft. "Strong US import demand is easing," Drewry noted, adding that the US National Retail Federation forecasts November ocean import volumes to fall 11% month on month, which could put further downward pressure on freight rates.

Do shippers see the same picture as the indices?

Not quite. US forwarders described a "stable" week rather than one of falling prices. "Pricing carried over from last week, while space availability improved and vessel schedules became more consistent," explained west coast forwarder Freight Right. "As the traditional pre-holiday ocean shipping peak fully closes out, pricing has settled into a steady holding pattern across both coasts."

But the calm masks a fading chance that the general rate increase scheduled for 1 November — ranging from $2,000 to $3,000 per 40ft depending on the carrier — will stick. Urgent pre-holiday cargo is shifting to air freight, and Freight Right expects China-to-US ocean rates to remain broadly stable through the first half of November, with the possibility of modest declines.

"Improving space availability and more consistent schedules suggest limited near-term upward pressure on pricing," the forwarder said.

What is happening on Asia-Europe?

The WCI was essentially flat there this week, extending October's surprising spot strength. Shanghai-Rotterdam rose 1%, to $3,686 per 40ft, while Shanghai-Genoa held at $4,151 per 40ft — a figure that masks carrier discounting to fill ships amid weak demand, and despite new FAK levels due on 1 November.

Those targets put MSC at $4,500 per 40ft for Asia-North Europe, $5,000 for Asia-west Mediterranean and $5,100 for Asia-east Mediterranean. CMA CGM is aiming for $4,900 on Asia-west Med and $5,200 on Asia-east Med ports.

Linerlytica, however, doubts the increases will survive contact with the market. "Asia-North Europe rates remain under pressure, with carriers undermining their 1 November rate hike efforts with persistent discounts," the analyst said.

The Gemini alliance partners are offering the lowest early-November spot rates: Hapag-Lloyd at $3,000-$3,200 per 40ft and Maersk at $3,200-$3,400. MSC, the Ocean Alliance and the Premier Alliance have responded by cutting offers to $3,400-$3,500. "The 1 November rate hike is effectively doomed," Linerlytica concluded.

Why are carriers still pushing FAK increases?

The answer lies in the annual contracting calendar. With the Asia-Europe tendering season in full swing, spot rates guide the negotiations, so carriers have announced another round of FAK increases for 15 November: MSC lifting Asia-North Europe to $4,600 and west Mediterranean to $5,300 per 40ft, and CMA CGM targeting $5,500 on Asia-west Med.

Capacity management is tightening slightly in parallel. Drewry's Container Capacity Insight counts four blanked sailings announced for next week, down from eight this week — a mild withdrawal compared with the heavy blanking programmes carriers used earlier in the year.

Drewry also doubts the new FAK levels will hold. "Given available capacity and weak demand, it remains uncertain whether these increases will hold. Hence, Drewry expects rates to remain stable next week," the analyst said.

The global orderbook for containership newbuildings, having recently passed 15m teu, could approach 16m teu by year-end — a supply overhang that will keep the balance of negotiating power with shippers as 2025 closes.