Washington Opens Door for Dark-Fleet Tanker Sales, but Few Ships May Walk Through

A supertanker running crude through the Strait of Hormuz can earn as much as $40 million per trip, according to shipbrokers — and that single number explains why Washington's plan to bring sanctioned tankers back into legitimate trade may deliver far less capacity than it promises.

The Trump administration said on Monday it will authorize the sale of blacklisted oil tankers so the vessels can return to mainstream crude shipping, Energy Secretary Chris Wright announced. The government aims to "convert" tankers to expand global availability, Wright said, but it will not lift the existing sanctions themselves. He offered no detail on how the sales process would work or who might invest.

The timing is political as much as commercial. The announcement landed weeks before the US midterm elections, with gasoline and diesel prices weighing on voters after months of war in the Persian Gulf and the continuing Russia-Ukraine conflict. Brent crude remains near a five-month high, and the administration has already tried periodic waivers on sanctioned oil and a diesel export deal with Russia to cool prices.

Why won't sellers line up?

The arithmetic works against the plan. Resale values for tankers have climbed in recent months — a 10-year-old supertanker fetched roughly $190 million in early October, per Clarksons data — but soaring freight rates still give owners every reason to keep vessels working rather than sell them.

"Sanctions relief does not equal immediately usable mainstream tanker capacity," said Rahul Kapoor, global head of shipping analytics and research at S&P Global Energy. "The number of vessels that could realistically migrate back into mainstream trading would likely be materially smaller than the overall sanctioned fleet."

There is precedent for individual exits from the blacklist. The supertanker Kiara M, sanctioned in December for supporting Venezuelan oil trade, was removed from the list in March after Washington shifted Caracas's oil flows into mainstream channels. A fleet-wide program, however, faces hurdles the Kiara M case never did:

• Many sanctioned vessels are already locked into contracts.
• The EU and UK run their own blacklists and dominate maritime insurance cover, limiting what Washington can do unilaterally.
• Much of the eligible fleet is simply too old for mainstream charterers.

How many ships could actually return?

Independent energy broker Oil Brokerage counts 294 sanctioned tankers that are free from EU or UK penalties. The catch is age: about 70% of them are older than 20 years and hold little appeal for legitimate traders. Strip those out, and just 75 tankers of all sizes remain commercially available, including 50 supertankers.

"Any capacity return is likely to be gradual rather than immediate," Oil Brokerage analyst Ting Jun Jie said.

For shipowners, the commercial case for holding firm is straightforward. A single Hormuz round trip at $40 million means a vessel can recoup a quarter of its $190 million resale value in a handful of voyages. Sellers would also face complex compliance checks before any sanctioned hull could re-enter the insured, mainstream market.

For shippers and charterers, the calculus cuts the other way. Every tanker that stays in the dark fleet keeps pressure on a freight market that shows no sign of cooling, sustaining costs that eventually flow into crude and refined product prices.

Is this a policy shift or a price play?

Legal observers read the move as part of a broader turn in how Washington frames sanctions — from enforcement tool to lever on energy prices.

"The administration is doing all these things to bring down prices," said Karnan Thirupathy, a partner at Wotton Kearney who advises shipping clients on sanctions compliance. "It hadn't been framed that way in the past. It's an indication that they're more inclined to do this more now than before."

Whether that inclination translates into tonnage depends on sellers who currently have little financial reason to participate. With Brent holding near five-month highs and the freight rally still running, the tanker market's incentives point toward business as usual until Washington attaches real conditions — or real money — to the conversion plan.