Russian Crude Exports Hit Five-Week Low as Primorsk Rebounds

Russia’s four-week overseas crude flows fell 30,000 barrels a day to 3.55 million barrels a day through Oct. 25, a five-week low. Weekly exports nevertheless jumped 730,000 barrels a day to 3.85 million barrels a day, their highest in a month.

What drove the weekly jump?

Vessel-tracking data and industry reports showed 37 tankers loading 26.93 million barrels of Russian crude in the week to Oct. 25. The revised prior-week total was 21.87 million barrels on 31 ships. Bloomberg tanker data put the rolling four-week average at 3.55 million barrels a day.

At Primorsk, the Baltic terminal near St. Petersburg, 12 tankers departed last week, up from four the week before. That earlier week included a three-day gap in arrivals and departures. The gap suggested that loading may have stopped for maintenance at the port or its supplying pipeline; similar past interruptions have been linked to maintenance.

The Primorsk recovery helped drive a rebound in Russian crude on the water. It also explains why weekly flows rose while the softer four-week average fell. Weekly loadings can swing with weather, maintenance work, sanctions, military activity and departure timing, limiting the signal from any single sailing count.

Why is export availability under pressure?

Russia’s war on Ukraine has hit global fuel and food supplies, compounding the effect of the conflict in the Persian Gulf. The disruption has sent crude prices to their highest since the early days of the full-scale invasion, when the Brent benchmark briefly topped $120 a barrel.

A lull in Kyiv’s attacks on Russian refineries allowed Moscow to raise processing rates and likely diverted crude that would otherwise have gone to buyers overseas. No strikes were reported on Russian oil-processing plants in the seven days to Oct. 25, as Russia, Ukraine and the US moved to initiate trilateral talks.

If the pause in refinery attacks continues, Russia could have less crude available for export in the coming weeks. Previously damaged plants would repair and restart, absorbing more barrels into domestic processing. For tanker owners and cargo buyers, that combination threatens Russian loadings just as Primorsk has regained capacity.

India offers a second threat to export volumes. Buyers there may turn away from Russian barrels because of sky-high shipping costs and cheaper alternatives from the Persian Gulf. Middle Eastern crude flows have returned to near pre-war levels, giving buyers another source, although the durability of that supply remains uncertain if the Iran conflict flares after the US midterms and the Israeli election.

How has the cargo mix shifted?

Novorossiysk loaded one shipment of Kazakhstan’s Kebco grade during the week to Oct. 25. Since the start of September, Moscow has diverted all shipments of Kazakh crude through the Black Sea port, freeing more capacity for Russian barrels at Ust-Luga on the Baltic. Industry observers regard Ust-Luga as the safer option.

The revenue data show the value of the rebound. On a four-week average, the gross value of Moscow’s oil shipments held near $2.61 billion a week in the 28 days to Oct. 25, close to the prior week’s three-week low. Lower total flows and lower prices for Russia’s key Urals crude offset higher prices for the Pacific ESPO grade.

Weekly export value rose about $430 million to a wartime high of $2.76 billion. Lower Urals prices failed to offset the jump in shipment volumes and an eighth consecutive weekly increase in ESPO values. That combination produced the higher weekly total.

Where did the cargoes go?

China and India remain Russia’s largest crude buyers by a considerable margin, but tankers often lack a firm final destination until well into their voyage. Cargoes showing interim destinations such as Suez, Port Sudan or Singapore count as “Unknown Asia” until trackers establish a credible final destination. Ships listing Russian loading ports or Gibraltar fall under “Other Unknown.”

Observed shipments to Asian customers, including those without a final destination, edged down to 3.42 million barrels a day in the 28 days to Oct. 25, from a revised 3.45 million barrels a day in the prior period.

For freight forwarders, late destination changes leave near-term cargo allocation and shipment comparisons provisional. Historically, most cargoes with intermediate destinations ultimately reached India or China.

Mediterranean flows stayed level from the revised Oct. 18 figure, about 130,000 barrels a day, after one Turkey-bound tanker changed its destination to the Suez Canal. Turkey received about 80,000 barrels a day during the four weeks, unchanged from the earlier period.

Egypt’s earlier surge, which reached as much as 160,000 barrels a day in mid-June, receded to about 50,000 barrels a day.

Syrian flows have remained at zero since August, after Syria agreed to “drastically” reduce Russian oil imports in negotiations with the US about lifting remaining sanctions.

Regional figures may still rise when trackers resolve destinations for almost 1.8 million barrels a day. Until then, Russia’s export picture will remain sensitive to refinery attacks, tanker schedules, shipping costs and the durability of Middle Eastern supply. The immediate tension is clear: Primorsk’s recovery can lift weekly loadings, while repaired refineries restarting could reduce crude available for export and destination revisions could raise regional totals.