Maersk hikes full-year EBITDA outlook to $14bn-plus, shares still slide 11.6%

A.P. Moller-Maersk raised its full-year EBITDA forecast to $14 billion to $14.5 billion on Thursday, its third guidance upgrade of 2026, yet the stock fell as much as 11.6% in Copenhagen trading because results still missed elevated analyst expectations.

The world's second-largest container liner reported third-quarter EBITDA of $4.7 billion, up sharply from $2.7 billion a year earlier, on revenue of $18.1 billion, a 27% increase. That wasn't enough. The LSEG analyst consensus stood at $5.04 billion, and Maersk came in below it.

What did the new guidance change?

The upgrade was substantial across every metric:

• Full-year underlying EBITDA: $14-14.5 billion, up from $10.5-12.5 billion
• Underlying EBIT: $8-8.5 billion, up from $4.5-6.5 billion
• Free cash flow: above $3 billion, versus prior guidance of above zero

Maersk attributed the revision to its third-quarter performance and better visibility into the remainder of 2026. The outlook assumes global container-market volume growth of around 4%.

Why did the shares fall?

Expectations had run ahead of the numbers. Analysts cited by Dow Jones pointed to strong outlook revisions from rivals Hapag-Lloyd and Zim, Maersk's Gemini network partner among them, which raised the bar for Copenhagen.

The Ocean division told the same story. Quarterly operating profit reached roughly $2.6 billion, up from $567 million a year ago, but fell short of the $3.07 billion FactSet forecast. Higher freight rates more than offset a slight decline in cargo volumes.

And that's the core commercial fact of this quarter: Maersk made its money on price, not tonnage. Main-business volumes fell about 1% even as global container demand grew between 2% and 4%. The carrier charged more to move fewer boxes.

Where else did earnings come from?

Growth stretched beyond ocean shipping. Group EBIT rose to $3.3 billion from $1.3 billion, an 18.1% operating margin. Logistics & Services revenue climbed 13% with its EBIT margin improving to 5.8%. Terminals posted record revenue and held strong earnings.

Port congestion and resilient demand have kept freight rates elevated, letting Maersk lift earnings expectations substantially without strong growth in its own shipped volumes.

For shippers and forwarders, the signal is mixed. A liner printing an 18.1% group margin on falling volumes confirms rate strength remains the market's driving force, sustained by congestion rather than cargo growth. For carriers, the bar keeps rising — a $4.7 billion EBITDA quarter can now disappoint.

Maersk cautioned its performance remains subject to uncertainty around macroeconomic conditions, bunker-fuel prices and freight rates. It also kept executing its $1 billion share-buyback program.

With the new outlook premised on roughly 4% global volume growth, the fourth quarter hinges on whether congestion-driven rate levels hold or soften — and whether Maersk can convert price strength into volume before investor patience wears thinner.