Iran oil exports near halt as peace deal odds fade

By Amara Osei

Only about 200,000 to 300,000 barrels a day of Iranian oil still reach the market through Iraq, according to FGE, leaving Iran’s oil exports near zero under the US naval blockade. FGE NexantECA assessed on Nov. 6, 2026 that an imminent deal to end the more than eight-month war was unlikely.

FGE Chairman Emeritus Fereidun Fesharaki said: “Not only are we not close to a resolution, we are even worse than we were before the June MOU.” The June agreement temporarily reopened the Strait of Hormuz, yet Fesharaki said the situation now stands further from resolution than before it.

He rates renewed strikes as likely because President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have only limited time to act. Fesharaki attributes Tehran’s tougher demands to the Republican Party’s disastrous midterm showing, which he says Tehran reads as leaving President Trump politically weaker; Iran now seeks terms the White House cannot accept.

Trump repeatedly threatened fresh attacks before the midterms, helping push oil prices to a six-month high in October. Since the vote, he has shown more restraint, and Brent crude fell about 15% this week. The price response has cooled; the blockade’s economic pressure has not yet won major concessions from Tehran.

What does this change for shippers?

China was the main destination for sanctioned Iranian crude before the conflict, especially for independent refiners, or teapots, that valued the discounted barrels. Bloomberg vessel-tracking estimates showed Iran loaded no crude onto tankers in September or October. September marked the first month without loadings since the war began in February.

For shippers, that means a sharp loss of discounted feedstock for Chinese independent refiners. For carriers, the strain is fleet idling. For forwarders, the operational issue is a near-stop in fresh loadings, a backlog of waiting vessels and patchy passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

The scale is visible in four operating markers:

• Only about 200,000-300,000 barrels a day still reaches the market via Iraq.
• Iran loaded no crude onto tankers in September or October 2026.
• At least 54 tankers carrying Iranian oil or other petroleum products sit idle along Iran’s coast, according to the American nonprofit United Against Nuclear Iran.
• About 11 ships carrying Iranian liquefied petroleum gas have successfully passed the blockade, according to UANI’s update this week.

UANI said some smaller vessels are still getting through, so the blockade is broad rather than absolute. The contrast is stark on its face: 11 ships passed while at least 54 tankers waited.

For Tehran, the immediate consequence is fiscal. The near-halt in shipments has squeezed a key source of government revenue after more than eight months of war. Fesharaki warned: “By the end of November, they will be starving because there will be no money coming in.” The warning concerns state finances, not empty dinner plates.

That leaves military risk and political deadlock moving together. Trump has tempered his threats since the vote, but Fesharaki sees Tehran extracting leverage from his weakened position rather than conceding on the blockade. The June MOU remains a temporary reopening, not a durable settlement.

Until Washington and Tehran produce a durable agreement, FGE’s assessment points to continued near-zero Iranian oil exports and episodic LPG passages; at least 54 tankers currently sit idle. The next test is policy, not throughput: a durable deal offers the clearest route to restored loadings, while failed talks leave the blockade, revenue squeeze and renewed-strike risk in place.