Hong Kong–North America airfreight averaged $7.02 per kilogram in September, up from $6.98/kg in August and 31% higher year on year, according to the latest TAC Index data.

The transpacific reading sets the tone for a market tilting into its fourth-quarter peak season. Hong Kong–Europe rates climbed to $4.80/kg from $4.58/kg, leaving that lane 8.8% above September 2024 levels.

What is driving the September uptick?

Two forces shape TAC's reading. First, jet fuel: prices have more than doubled year on year on the back of Middle East tensions, lifting carrier cost bases across every lane.

Second, demand is split by trade direction. AI-related data-centre shipments have routed strongly to the United States, supporting transpacific pricing power. Asia-to-Europe flows, by contrast, face a regulatory headwind: the European Union's new €3-per-package charge on low-value e-commerce shipments under €150.

"That sort of jump was not unexpected after rates had been edging up slightly throughout September, but far from keeping pace yet with surging jet fuel prices," TAC said in its weekly update.

Did the rate climb accelerate into October?

Yes. TAC's global Baltic Air Freight Index jumped 5% week on week by October 5, leaving it 25.5% above the same week a year earlier. The acceleration came ahead of China's Golden Week (1–7 October) and the renewed seasonal push for inventory.

Key weekly readings from TAC:

• Hong Kong outbound: +3% week on week, +22.3% year on year
• Shanghai outbound: +2.2% week on week, +18.3% year on year

Which East and Southeast Asian lanes are lagging?

TAC's weekly update described a more mixed picture outside the China origins. Japan and Seoul posted week-on-week gains. Lanes from Taiwan trended lower. Vietnam advanced, with the exception of Hanoi–Europe. Bangkok slipped, and the BAI Spot reading from India eased slightly even as broader Indian rates held firmer.

What are the commercial consequences?

For shippers, the message is lane-specific. AI-related cargo moving from Greater China to North America faces tighter capacity and firmer contract negotiations. Forwarders absorbing fuel surcharges on Europe trades are working with slimmer gross margins.

The EU parcel levy adds a second-order effect: low-value e-commerce flows from Asia into Europe look commercially marginal at €3 per shipment, and forwarders will need to consolidate or reprice to defend contribution.

What should the trade expect next?

TAC's reading implies further upward pressure on rates through October as Golden Week disruption collides with sustained data-centre demand and jet fuel at multi-year highs. Carriers will test whether spot rates can finally close the gap with the fuel cost base, while forwarders will look to lock contract cover before any Q4 spike.