Air freight rates from Hong Kong to North America reached $7.02 per kg in September, up from $6.98 per kg in August, as the market built toward the fourth-quarter peak season. The Hong Kong-Europe lane fared better in relative terms, with average rates — combining spot and contract prices — rising from $4.58 per kg to $4.80 per kg over the same month.

The figures come from data provider TAC Index and mark the start of the gradual demand ramp that companies typically generate as they build inventories ahead of Q4. They also confirm a sharply higher base than last year: Hong Kong–North America rates stand 31% above September 2023 levels, while Hong Kong–Europe is up 8.8%.

What is driving the year-on-year gap?

Two forces sit behind the double-digit increases on transpacific lanes. First, jet fuel prices have climbed as a result of the Middle East conflict — TAC notes jet fuel is up more than 100% year on year, a cost carriers are increasingly passing through. Second, demand for AI-related infrastructure into the US has boomed this year, lifting North American-bound loads ahead of Europe-bound traffic.

European lanes face a countervailing pressure. Volumes from Asia into Europe have weakened since the European Union introduced a €3 per package charge on shipments valued below €150, a measure aimed squarely at e-commerce consignments and one that forwarders with high-volume e-commerce books will feel most directly.

Did the rise accelerate into October?

Early data for the first days of October suggests it did, as the fourth quarter got underway and ahead of China's Golden Week holiday, which ran from 1 to 7 October.

TAC's global Baltic Air Freight Index jumped 5% in the seven days to 5 October, leaving it up 25.5% from twelve months earlier. The index of outbound routes from Hong Kong rose 3% week on week to stand 22.3% ahead year on year, while outbound Shanghai gained 2.2% week on week to sit 18.3% above a year ago.

TAC described the timing as predictable but flagged that the market has not fully absorbed fuel costs. "That sort of jump was not unexpected after rates had been edging up slightly throughout September, but far from keeping pace yet with surging jet fuel prices," the data provider said in its weekly update.

For shippers and forwarders, that gap between rate increases and a jet fuel bill that has more than doubled points to further upward pressure on surcharges as the peak season progresses.

How mixed is the picture across Asia?

Gains are far from uniform across origin points.

• Japan and Seoul: week-on-week rate gains.
• Taiwan: falls on outbound lanes.
• Vietnam: gains overall — though not on Hanoi–Europe lanes.
• Bangkok: declines on outbound lanes.
• India: BAI Spot slipped slightly over the week, though overall rates from India edged higher again.

"Rates elsewhere out of East Asia were more mixed, with gains week on week out of Japan and Seoul — but falls on lanes from Taiwan," TAC said. "Likewise out of Southeast Asia, with gains from Vietnam — though not on lanes from Hanoi to Europe — and falls on lanes from Bangkok."

What happens next?

The commercial read for the coming weeks is straightforward. Carriers hold pricing leverage while jet fuel stays elevated and AI-related data centre volumes fill transpacific capacity; shippers face a market where spot rates are rising faster in early October than they did through September, and forwarders routing e-commerce into Europe must now price in the EU's per-package levy. With Golden Week factory closures concluded and peak-season replenishment under way, the trajectory indicated by the 5% weekly Baltic index jump points to continued rate firming through the fourth quarter unless jet fuel prices reverse.