Worldwide air cargo tonnages rose +2% week on week in week 38 (14–20 September), extending a four-week run of gains and pushing global volumes +8% above the same period last year, according to WorldACD Market Data. Average worldwide full-market rates held broadly steady and stand +24% higher year on year, with the global spot rate at US$3.45 per kilo — up +33% YoY despite renewed jet fuel price increases.

The rebound follows the usual annual dip triggered by Labor Day in the US and Canada on 7 September. A +14% surge in volumes from North American origins did most of the work in week 38, restoring North American traffic to its level of previous weeks. Two regions moved against the trend: Middle East & South Asia (MESA) and Africa each recorded -4% week-on-week declines.

Asia Pacific origins drove the annual comparison, with tonnages up +11% YoY, ahead of North America at +8%, Europe at +6%, and MESA and Central & South America (CSA) at +2% each.

Where are rates moving?

Full-market rate increases over the past year are led by MESA at +49% YoY, followed by Europe and Africa at +26% each and Asia Pacific origins at +21%. Africa posted the sharpest week-on-week move, with full-market rates up +6% WoW to US$2.47 per kilo and spot rates up +7%.

Spot rates from Asia Pacific and Europe each edged up +1% WoW, offset by drops from North America (-4%), MESA (-2%) and CSA (-1%). Every region shows YoY spot rate gains of at least +25% except CSA, up just +5%. MESA leads at +52%, followed by North America (+34%), Africa (+31%), Asia Pacific (+30%) and Europe (+29%).

Why is MESA traffic falling?

The -4% weekly drop from MESA traces largely to the US lane, where traffic fell -5% WoW — including -5% from India, -17% from Bangladesh and -10% from Sri Lanka. Gulf-origin tonnages remain volatile. MESA traffic to Europe was steadier, edging up +1% WoW, with Bangladeshi gains offsetting a -14% weekly decline from Sri Lanka.

Capacity tells a sharper regional story. Worldwide capacity rose about +1% WoW in week 38 — freighter capacity up nearly +2%, passenger belly capacity slightly down — and international capacity is up +4% YoY on +5% freighter growth. But measured against week 7, just before the start of the US-Iran conflict, capacity to and from MESA is down -9% on average. Within that, South Asia capacity is up about +3%, while Gulf Area capacity remains down almost -17%. Capacity to and from Europe, by contrast, has grown +19% over the same period, and Asia Pacific is roughly -2% lower.

What is happening on Asia-Europe?

After four weeks of gradual recovery from China and Hong Kong to Europe following two months of steep declines since the EU removed 'de minimis' exemptions on 1 July, volumes slipped back in week 38 — including a -5% WoW drop from Hong Kong. Tonnages from Hong Kong to Europe are down -29% YoY, while mainland China volumes are broadly stable at +2%.

Rates on the lane are holding firm regardless. Spot rates to Europe rose WoW from mainland China (+4%), Hong Kong (+1%), Japan (+3%) and South Korea (+2%). Vietnamese spot rates jumped +8% WoW for a second consecutive week to US$4.89 per kilo, and average Asia Pacific-to-Europe spot rates rose +2% to US$4.72 per kilo.

Transpacific demand is stronger still. Asia Pacific-to-US volumes are up +13% YoY, led by South Korea (+54%), Japan (+47%), China (+14%), Thailand (+12%), Singapore (+10%) and Indonesia (+19%). Spot rates from Asia Pacific to the US held steady at US$6.75 per kilo — around +40% higher than the equivalent week last year, with Singapore rates up +62% YoY and Japan up +50%.

Can Golden Week lift the market further?

China's Mid-Autumn Festival (25–27 September) and National Day Golden Week (1–7 October) arrive in quick succession, compressing production, export handovers and freight planning into a narrow pre-October window, forwarders report. Air freight tends to become the pressure-release valve when ocean schedules slip, with urgent shipments, high-value goods and e-commerce competing for limited uplift around the holiday.

Forwarders say general cargo demand from North China is rising as shippers push cargo out ahead of the holidays, though e-commerce volumes remain relatively soft. New charter capacity is broadly absorbing the rate pressure that stronger general cargo volumes would otherwise create, holding rates steady. From Southern China, transpacific demand is rising but capacity is sufficient to keep rates stable, with e-commerce demand from the region also relatively low.

The twin holidays may lift transpacific markets in the coming days, while soft westbound demand from Asia Pacific to Europe keeps rates on that lane subdued.