Container spot rates on the transpacific climbed this week, with Shanghai–US West Coast at $7,550-8,400/FEU and Shanghai–US East Coast at $9,600-12,000/FEU, but analysts at Xeneta, Drewry and Freightos now say the market has most likely reached its post-Hormuz peak.

Drewry expects rates to face downward pressure next week as 10 blanked sailings are scheduled, down from 13 the previous week. The advisor cited Golden Week factory closures as the demand-side trigger. Rates on the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index fell 0.65%, the index's second straight weekly decline after eight consecutive increases.

The transpacific gains are stark in cumulative terms. Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta, noted rates from Asia to the West Coast are up 344% since the start of the Iran war, and 335% to the East Coast. "We can say with a level of confidence that the market has reached its post-Hormuz crisis peak in 2026," Sand said.

How bad is Shanghai port congestion?

Only 12% of container ships berthed on time at Shanghai in August, according to Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence. Typhoon-season congestion has begun to ease, Sand said, with Golden Week cutting export volumes in the first week of October.

Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, expects import demand to cool after the holiday and as the peak season ends. He cited Sea-Intelligence in estimating it could take up to 10 months to fully unwind Asian port congestion.

Levine drew a cautious line under the floor: "We could therefore expect congestion – together with higher fuel costs from the Hormuz closure – to contribute to an elevated rate floor even during low demand stretches, and a higher baseline from which prices will climb when demand increases again ahead of Lunar New Year."

Xeneta forecasts spot rates to the US East Coast at $6,000-$7,000/FEU and to the West Coast at $4,500-$5,500/FEU for the balance of 2026, with the spread narrowing as the East Coast's higher starting point produces a steeper fall.

Does the Panama Canal have more capacity now?

The Panama Canal Authority will lift daily transit slots to 33 from 32 starting 15 October, citing improved Gatun Lake water levels, currently slightly above the 10-year average. The PCA raised the maximum authorized draft for the neopanamax locks to 49ft (14.94m) from 48.5ft, effective immediately.

What is happening on US chemical tankers?

US chemical tanker freight rates assessed by ICIS were steady to higher this week across most trade lanes.

• Transatlantic: edging higher as the arbitration window opened for various chemicals amid the Middle East war. Methanol dominates the lane alongside caustic soda and smaller parcels of vinyl acetate monomer (VAM), with very little spot space remaining.
• USG–Asia: upward pressure from limited availability. Steady COA nominations expected to keep the lane firm through November.
• USG–Brazil: more active, but October space remains available and rates held steady. MEG was quoted but not fixed. Base oils, biodiesel and styrene led recent inquiries.
• USG–India: spot activity dropped as tighter space ended discretionary trading. A few large parcels of methanol and MEG reportedly fixed.

Bunker prices softened week-over-week on lower energy prices, offering carriers modest margin relief. Carriers and shippers should expect an elevated rate floor in the months ahead as Asian congestion unwinds slowly and Hormuz-related bunker costs persist.