Brent crude has held around $100 a barrel for the past month as markets continue to price in the risk of prolonged disruption to flows through the Persian Gulf and Red Sea, even as Gulf producers restore output and reroute crude around the Strait of Hormuz.

Saudi Aramco chief executive Amin Nasser warned on that day that crude and refined fuel inventories across major consuming economies have dropped to "scarily thin" levels, and that relief will not arrive until the waterway fully reopens.

"Markets will remain under pressure until the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens," Nasser told the Energy Intelligence Forum in London. He added that the planned coordinated release of up to 100 million barrels of emergency crude and diesel stocks by major economies would only "provide temporary relief" and would not resolve the underlying supply-demand imbalance.

How thin are the stocks?

Nasser said that even after the strait fully reopens, oil-consuming countries may need up to two years to rebuild commercial and strategic inventories to comfortable levels. That timeline frames the operational exposure for refiners, bunker suppliers and tanker operators across the Atlantic Basin and Asia-Pacific, who have been drawing on stocks rather than spot cargoes to keep refineries and power generation running.

For shipowners and charterers, the implication is a longer period of volatile freight rates on the VLCC and Aframax routes out of the Arabian Gulf, with refinery run rates in Europe and Asia already adjusted to the loss of Middle Eastern barrels.

How are Gulf producers rerouting barrels?

Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait have increased output and exports, with each relying on their own tanker fleets to move crude through the strait under tight naval escort. Crude flows through Hormuz have recovered to near pre-war levels, according to industry tracking cited by Aramco.

Aramco has lifted shipments from its Ras Tanura export terminal on the Persian Gulf and restored flows on its East-West pipeline to roughly 80% of capacity after a temporary shutdown caused by an attack last month. The 5 million barrel-per-day pipeline, which terminates at Yanbu on the Red Sea, lets the company bypass Hormuz entirely for cargoes headed to Europe and the Mediterranean.

Nasser said Aramco maintained supplies during the conflict by drawing on international storage and by repairing damaged infrastructure quickly. He confirmed the company is now looking at additional alternative export routes and more overseas storage to cut its dependence on any single chokepoint.

What does it mean for fuel buyers and forwarders?

For procurement officers and freight forwarders, the combination of thin cover, a $100 Brent floor and a two-year rebuild window points to sustained fuel surcharges on container and air freight, and to a bidding war for prompt distillate cargoes heading into the U.S. Gulf, Northwest Europe and Singapore. Diesel and jet fuel price moves have been sharper than crude's, Nasser noted, which is feeding directly into trucking and airline cost bases on the Europe-Asia and trans-Pacific corridors.

Shipowners operating product carriers on the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden face a different calculus: Red Sea diversions around the Cape of Good Hope have already added 10-14 days to Europe-Asia container routings, and the East-West pipeline's 80% loading now adds a parallel crude stream that competes for limited Red Sea port slots at Yanbu.

What to watch next

Nasser's two-year inventory rebuild estimate sets the clock for how long spot buyers will compete against strategic-stock replenishment. Watch the next IEA monthly oil report for OECD commercial stock levels, and the next Aramco OSP announcement for any change in the Asia and Northwest Europe differentials, as those will signal whether the $100 floor is breaking or hardening.