Venture Global Lifts 2026 EBITDA Outlook to $10.3bn on AI Power Push

Venture Global raised its 2026 adjusted EBITDA forecast to between $10 billion and $10.3 billion on Tuesday, up from a previous range of $8.7 billion to $9.1 billion and well above the roughly $9.2 billion analysts had expected on average, according to LSEG. The Arlington, Virginia-based LNG exporter posted third-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $2.6 billion, beating estimates of about $2.5 billion, and its shares rose about 3% in morning trading.

The upgrade is not purely an LNG story. Venture Global is positioning itself as a power and infrastructure provider for artificial intelligence data centers, a market straining US electricity grids and rewarding any company that can deliver dedicated generation capacity.

What did the company sign with GE Vernova and Baker Hughes?

In October, Venture Global signed framework agreements with GE Vernova and Baker Hughes for up to 16 power-island units totaling roughly 11.5 gigawatts of capacity, plus transformers and related grid equipment to support future data center developments. That capacity figure dwarfs the company's own near-term compute targets, which suggests the agreements are options on a market still forming rather than committed buildout — a distinction the company did not address.

Chief Executive Mike Sabel laid out the pitch on the earnings call:

"Venture Global can provide access to island-mode power, land, closed-loop water systems … and track record of execution as the market dictates to support compute capacity for the country's AI race."

The company expects its first compute capacity online in late 2028 and projects data center-related power capacity of about 5 GW by the end of 2031. That is a seven-year horizon before even half the 11.5 GW of framework capacity converts to operating assets; the timeline between now and first power leaves ample room for demand, technology or policy to shift.

Why Louisiana?

Sabel said Louisiana is emerging as a leading location for AI infrastructure development, citing the midterm election results earlier this month and the state's supportive policy environment and available energy resources. He stressed that the company's systems would operate independently of local utilities:

"We're not connecting and reliant on the utility grids, we have no impact on the community's grids or available power generation or prices, and we're not reliant on the water utilities either."

The island-mode claim matters commercially: it removes the grid-interconnection queue and local opposition over power and water usage from the project risk list. But no customer contracts for compute capacity were named, and none appear to have been signed yet.

Can the LNG business fund it?

Sabel said the growing LNG business should generate enough cash flow to support both LNG expansion and the AI infrastructure push. His arithmetic:

"The cumulative EBITDA from today for 2027, 2028 and 2029 is significant, and my view is that it's going to, in aggregate, be in excess of $30 billion, depending on your price assumption on the sale of cargoes in the future."

That $30 billion-plus figure carries its own caveat in the same sentence — it depends on future cargo prices, which the company does not control. Venture Global also holds more than $5 billion in cash, Sabel said, and does not expect financing constraints to hinder either the LNG expansion projects or the planned data center investments.

What does the LNG demand picture look like?

The company sees increased demand for LNG supply contracts from Asian buyers amid continuing geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East. Sabel characterized the contracting environment in striking terms:

"It's an extremely attractive 20-year market for us right now. Probably as good as we've seen since the beginning."

He said Venture Global expects to sign additional long-term LNG agreements by year-end. The company also intends to pursue more medium-term contracts, because shorter-duration agreements typically command higher liquefaction fees and stronger returns — a margin play worth noting as long-term dealmaking accelerates.

On the project front, Venture Global expects first LNG production from its CP2 export project in July 2027, roughly 24 months after the project's final investment decision. The company said CP2 should ramp up production faster than its Plaquemines LNG facility, which sets a benchmark the new project will be measured against.

For LNG buyers, the raised EBITDA guidance, the $5 billion cash position and the pivot toward data centers signal a supplier investing capital in two directions at once — with the 2027 CP2 start date and the late-2028 compute timeline now the two dates to watch.