Indonesian coal exports slide 6% as dry bulk trade map redraws

Seaborne coal trade will grow just 1% in 2026, reaching 1.343bn tonnes — but that flat headline conceals a trade map being torn apart and redrawn, with Indonesian exports retreating, southern African loaders setting records and Asian demand fracturing along new lines.

Clarksons Research forecasts Indonesian exports will fall 6% this year to 496.9m tonnes, while Australian shipments climb 4% to 371.3m tonnes. The demand side splinters the same way: Chinese seaborne imports are expected to decline 5%, India's 3%, while Japan's rise 3%.

What is happening at Indonesian load ports?

The retreat is already visible on loading lists, not just in forecasts. Braemar's analysis of AXSMarine tracking data shows Indonesian exports fell 8% year-on-year during January-October. The pain is unevenly distributed across vessel classes:

• Capesize shipments down 24%
• Supramax and ultramax movements down 12%
• Panamax cargoes down 4%

Export procedures and low river levels have compounded the pressure on shipments, according to the analysis. The pattern matters for owners: the biggest ships are losing the most cargo, which tightens the economics of the Pacific Capesize trades in particular.

Why is southern Africa the outlier?

Ursa Shipbrokers calculates that combined South African and Mozambican steam coal exports reached a ten-year high of 64.92m tonnes during January-October. Of that total, 27.26m tonnes — roughly 42% — was destined for India, underscoring how Atlantic-basin and Indian Ocean supply is stepping into the space Indonesia is vacating.

That southern African strength sits inside a softer global picture. Tracked seaborne steam coal trade fell 1.5% to 801.1m tonnes over the same ten months, including a 7.9% decline in Indonesian shipments.

Can India's import paradox hold?

India offers the year's sharpest contradiction. BIMCO reports Indian coal imports dropped 7% in the first ten months even as coal-fired electricity generation rose around 9%. Expensive imported supplies pushed generators toward domestic production and stock drawdowns.

The inventory data shows how far that squeeze has gone. BRS says coal stocks at Indian power stations covered just 5.9 days of consumption, against 14.7 days a year earlier — a 60% collapse in cover that leaves the system with little buffer.

The tonnage impact has been class-specific. Indian-bound coal volumes on supramaxes fell 16%, compared with a 4% decline for panamaxes — a divergence that hits supramax owners in the Indian Ocean trades far harder than the headline 7% import fall suggests.

October offered the first sign of a turn: Indian seaborne coal arrivals rose 7% year-on-year. A caveat follows, as it must. BIMCO expects only a limited import recovery in 2027 as domestic mining grows, so one strong month should not be read as a trend reversal.

What does this mean for rates and owners?

For dry bulk operators, the 2026 coal picture is a story of trade lanes, not tonnage. Total trade up 1% supports little; a 6% Indonesian export fall combined with a 24% Capesize cargo decline from those ports does real damage to Pacific ballasting patterns, while southern Africa's record 64.92m tonnes extends tonne-mile demand on longer hauls to India and Asia.

The energy backdrop adds one more variable. The Middle East energy crisis has encouraged coal-fired generation in parts of Europe and northeast Asia as LNG supplies tightened — a modest demand prop, but one that could fade quickly if gas markets loosen.

The forward path, on the source's own numbers, is a market redistributing rather than growing: Indonesian volumes under pressure into 2027, southern African loaders holding record momentum, and Indian demand capped by rising domestic mine output.