US Retail Sales Extend Winning Streak to 13 Months in October

US retail sales notched their 13th consecutive month of gains in October, reaching $561.7 billion despite persistent pressure at the gas pump. The figure comes from the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions and released by the National Retail Federation (NRF), and it landed with growth of 0.15% month over month and 3.57% year over year on a seasonally adjusted basis, excluding automobile dealers and gasoline stations.

The pace of expansion is cooling. September's total stood at $560.8 billion, itself up 0.28% from August and 4.05% year over year. October therefore marks a second consecutive month of deceleration on both measures — a signal worth watching for anyone forecasting holiday-season freight volumes, since container imports, warehouse throughput and last-mile capacity all take their cue from the rhythm of consumer spending.

What is driving the demand?

NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay attributed the gains to a pull-forward effect rather than organic strength. "Retail sales edged higher in October as a strong Halloween season and early winter holiday promotions pulled demand forward," Shay said.

His read of the consumer is one of discipline, not exuberance. "Households are managing budgets carefully, timing purchases around special offers and sales events in order to stretch their dollars," he said. "Retailers continue to offer promotions and value pricing to keep everyday items and holiday gifts affordable."

For supply chain planners, that behavior pattern matters. Shoppers concentrating purchases around discrete promotional windows — Halloween in October, then the holiday discount calendar that follows — tends to compress demand into spikes rather than smooth it across weeks. Carriers, forwarders and 3PLs serving retail accounts can expect the same lumpiness in outbound distribution and parcel networks through the peak season.

How solid is the streak?

Thirteen straight months of growth is a long run by any measure, and the year-over-year gain of 3.57% in October keeps the consumer economy firmly in expansionary territory. But the direction of travel within the numbers tells a more nuanced story:

• Month-over-month growth slowed from 0.28% in September to 0.15% in October — roughly half the pace.
• Year-over-year growth eased from 4.05% to 3.57%, a drop of just under half a percentage point.
• The October total of $561.7 billion exceeded September's $560.8 billion by about $900 million, a gain of 0.15% on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Both headline figures are adjusted for seasonal patterns, which means the underlying trend — slower but still positive — is not simply an artifact of the calendar.

Why it matters for freight

Retail sales excluding autos and fuel are the demand base for a large share of domestic trucking, intermodal and parcel activity, and a 13-month growth streak implies consistent, if moderating, freight demand from the consumer sector. The softening trajectory, however, suggests shippers and carriers should calibrate peak-season expectations carefully: households are still spending, but they are spending selectively, and only around promotions that retailers are funding with value pricing.

Shay's observation that retailers "continue to offer promotions and value pricing" cuts both ways for the supply chain. Promotional depth sustains unit volumes — and therefore freight tonnage — but it pressures retailer margins, which historically leads to tighter inventory discipline and less willingness to pay premium transport rates once peak demand is satisfied.

If November's data shows a further deceleration in the month-over-month rate, the streak may hold while the momentum behind holiday freight volumes continues to thin.