US manufacturing PMI held at 54.5 in September, marking a ninth consecutive month of expansion — but the reading came in 10 basis points below August and 40 basispoints short of consensus forecasts, the Institute for Supply Management reported. The figure maps to roughly 2.4% GDP growth and points to a broadly healthy industrial economy heading into the fourth quarter.

For freight markets, the more consequential number sits in the New Orders Index: it climbed 1.6% from August to 55.4, also its ninth straight month of expansion. Five of the six largest tracked manufacturing industries posted new-order growth in September:

• Computer and electronics
• Chemical products
• Transportation equipment
• Food and beverage
• Machinery

That breadth matters directly for trucking. The industrial economy drives roughly two-thirds of less-than-truckload revenue, and ISM readings tend to lead inflections in LTL data by about three months, noted Julie Van de Kamp.

What are the pricing signals?

The Price Index surged 6.8 points to 77.9, with 58.6% of surveyed respondents reporting higher prices. Raw material costs have now risen for the 24th consecutive month. Supply chain executives cited elevated diesel costs, tariff-related input inflation and slowing supplier delivery times as mounting headwinds — the ISM Supplier Delivery Index has flagged supply chain constraints for 10 consecutive months.

Demand sentiment inside the new-orders subindex weakened as well. The positive-to-negative ratio fell to 1.7-to-1 in September, down from 2.5-to-1 in July.

Van de Kamp warned that financing and inventory costs could cap how aggressively manufacturers restock. "The headwinds of rising interest rates and continued goods cost inflation could detract from some companies choosing to carry elevated stock levels," she said.

Inventory levels remained lean at 41.6 — a reading normally read as a positive signal for future production, since depleted stocks eventually force replenishment. Whether that replenishment materializes at strength depends on the cost environment.

How is this showing up in LTL?

Several publicly traded LTL carriers have already reported year-over-year tonnage growth that accelerated in the third quarter beyond second-quarter levels. Old Dominion is among the carriers citing revenue gains even excluding fuel surcharges.

The rate data backs the volume story. LTL rates have climbed steadily through 2024, with the monthly cost per hundredweight running nearly 8% higher this September than a year earlier, according to FreightWaves SONAR data. Some carriers have also moved general rate increases forward on the calendar.

"All of this indicates really positive growth for LTL," Van de Kamp said.

What comes next?

Full third-quarter earnings reports from public LTL carriers are expected to begin dropping later in October, giving shippers a fuller picture of whether tonnage acceleration and rate momentum held through the quarter's close. With the price index at 77.9 and supplier deliveries tightening for a tenth month, input-cost pressure looks set to keep pushing freight and LTL pricing upward into the fourth quarter.