43% of shoppers plan to spend more this peak — more than double 2025

By Elena Vasquez

43% of North American consumers plan to spend more this peak season, more than double the 20% who said so a year earlier. That is the headline finding of Kenco's 2026 Peak Season Consumer Report, fielded in August 2026 among more than 350 consumers, up from 250 respondents in the 2025 edition.\n Another 39% expect to spend about the same, and 18% plan to spend less — down from 28% in 2025. The bigger budgets arrive bundled with bigger supply chain expectations that someone in the value chain has to fund: 73% of respondents consider free shipping standard when shopping online, 48% expect two-day delivery, 47% expect free returns, and 40% expect real-time tracking.

Most of the goods are already on US soil. The Global Port Tracker released Oct. 8 by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates shows August was likely the busiest import month of 2026, and NRF said most holiday merchandise has arrived as the extended peak shipping season winds down.

Is the spending jump confidence or inflation?

Frank Loewen, senior vice president of retail operations at the Chattanooga, Tennessee-based third-party logistics provider, said the numbers can be read two ways.

"One, I am in a better place, so I can afford to spend more," Loewen told FreightWaves. "Another one is I'm expecting prices to go up, but I still have to buy my kids presents, so I'm just going to end up spending more than I did last year for potentially the same item."

Some of Kenco's higher-end customers are seeing more volume than in the last couple of years, which Loewen said could reflect a K-shaped economy. Price pressure surfaces directly in the survey: 45% of respondents named import tariffs as a cost concern.

Where do free-shipping costs land?

Loewen traced the free-shipping expectation to Amazon, whose Prime memberships generate income that offsets the shipping it gives away. That has squeezed 3PLs and retailers.

"Nothing is free, right?" he said. "When customers are not charged directly, those costs are absorbed elsewhere in the value chain."

Kenco's answer is to place inventory as close to population centers and carriers as possible, then line up carrier rates that leave flexibility for the last mile. Free shipping has also changed ordering behavior, and that feeds returns — only 5% of respondents said return policies don't matter when choosing where to shop.

"Consumers may order additional items when shipping carries no additional charge, then return what they don't keep and expect their refunds as quickly as possible," Loewen said.

More retailers now charge for returns while steering shoppers to drop-off points at malls and supermarkets. Fees carry their own risk: 32% of respondents said they would stop shopping with a retailer after encountering hidden fees.

Why stock accuracy now drives trust

80% of respondents said inaccurate stock levels hurt their trust in a retailer. Retailers once filled online orders from a single warehouse; now they draw on inventory in stores and several warehouses at once.

"The idea of having accurate, location-level inventory is essential because customers can see product availability before placing an order," Loewen said. "They may not know which store or distribution center will fulfill it, but the item has to be available within that network."

Kenco's warehouse management systems send real-time inventory data to customers' Shopify storefronts, order management systems, or ERP software, and its cycle counts hold accuracy at 99.9% in many cases.

Can robotics absorb the peak?

Adding peak capacity once meant hiring large numbers of workers or installing conveyors sized for a single season. "Traditionally, operators had to build labor and infrastructure capacity around their highest seasonal demand," Loewen said. "Flexible automation now allows us to scale throughput without carrying that excess capacity throughout the year."

Kenco now runs goods-to-person systems in which robots bring product to pickers, including a 130-robot AutoStore system announced in 2024 to serve multiple e-commerce customers at its Jeffersonville, Indiana, distribution center. AI tools group orders so products are picked more efficiently, work people once did by hand.

"People are still involved and responsible for operating the technology," he said. "But with automation, we're able to fulfill orders more efficiently than we could in the past."

With 73% of shoppers still treating free shipping as standard and nearly half naming tariffs as a cost worry, the burden of meeting peak expectations will keep shifting toward logistics providers that can move inventory closer to customers and automate around it.