The peak shipping season that outlasted its usual October window is winding down, US retailers told FreightWaves, easing one of the tightest stretches the trans-Pacific has logged in recent years.

The assessment, summarized in a FreightWaves headline, marks the first cargo-side confirmation that the demand spike supporting carrier rate increases since late summer has run its course. Carriers including CMA CGM, MSC, Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, ONE, Evergreen and ZIM blanked sailings and added loaders to manage capacity, while US ports from Los Angeles and Long Beach to Savannah, Houston and New York/New Jersey absorbed stacked container queues at multiple points since Labor Day.

Why the season ran long

FreightWaves' reporting aligns the extension with several documented pressures on 2024 supply chains: front-loaded imports booked ahead of tariff deadlines, a more dispersed promotional calendar that stretched Black Friday-style discounts across multiple weeks, and continued strength in e-commerce order profiles that pull smaller, more frequent shipments through Asian export hubs. The exact drivers each surveyed retailer cited are not in the public headline, but each factor has been visible in carrier schedules and US import data across the year.

What a taper means for shippers, carriers, and forwarders

A peak that runs into late November or early December carries commercial consequences on both sides of the booking:

• Shippers can open 2025 contract talks earlier, and carriers are likely to push for higher annual rates while spot desks still hold premium pricing.
• Carriers benefit from the longer revenue window but face the risk of empty repositioning if a sharp post-peak drop arrives.
• Forwarders will see the spot-versus-contract spread begin to compress as capacity that was bid up during peak starts loosening.

For beneficial cargo owners, the practical effect is shorter lead-time pressure on factories in southern China, Vietnam, and Indonesia, where vessels bunched through October. For non-vessel-operating common carriers, a tapering peak means the rate-protection clauses that drove Q3 margins are unlikely to recur in Q1.

What to watch over the next four weeks

A winding-down peak typically precedes a January–February air pocket on the trans-Pacific, when carriers historically blank sailings to match demand. Forwarders should monitor:

• Container dwell times at LA/Long Beach, which spiked during the busiest weeks
• Spot rate indices such as the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index and the Freightos Baltic Daily Index
• Carrier blanking announcements on trans-Pacific strings
• The spread between contract and spot rates
• Truck and rail drayage availability at West Coast ramps, which tightened alongside vessel calls

Retailers' view matters because the cargo side typically leads the ocean-carrier and port view by several weeks. When buyers stop booking, vessel utilization falls before the lines take capacity out, and port data confirms the shift after that.

Forward outlook

If the taper broadens, the post-peak market will test how much of 2024 peak-season pricing sticks into Q1 2025 contract renewals. Carriers have publicly guided to a softer first half; shippers will press for rates that reflect softer demand. The standoff between those positions typically resolves in late January or February, once carriers announce the first major blanking program of the new year and the SCFI resets after Chinese New Year.