The National Retail Federation has trimmed its September U.S. container import forecast to 2.28 million twenty-foot equivalent units, down from a prior 2.31 million TEU estimate, as the extended 2026 peak season tapers off.

The reduction, drawn from NRF's Global Port Tracker report produced with Hackett Associates, would still leave September volumes 8.2% above the year-ago month. August delivered 2.3 million TEUs across the ports tracked, the busiest month of the year so far, up 0.4% from July but down 0.7% from August 2025.

What does the revised forecast signal for shippers and carriers?

The month-by-month trajectory points to a gradual retreat from summer highs rather than an abrupt drop in cargo demand:

• September: 2.28 million TEUs (revised from 2.31 million, +8.2% YoY)
• October: 2.25 million TEUs (+8.5% YoY)
• November: 2.0 million TEUs

NRF now projects full-year 2026 imports at 25.8 million TEUs across covered ports, a 1.4% gain over 2025. Retailers are pivoting from holiday merchandise stocking to replenishing inventories for early 2027, keeping October and November tonnage elevated year over year even as the sequential decline resumes.

Why did the peak stretch so long?

Jonathan Gold, NRF's vice president for supply chain and customs policy, said the season's unusual duration masked its underlying shape. "Even with any fluctuations in final data, we're likely past the busiest part of the year," Gold said. "The truth is that the peak season started early and was stretched out through the summer and early fall, with the difference from month to month often amounting to little more than a rounding error."

Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, attributed the elevated volumes to resilient consumer demand running ahead of softer macro signals. "Imports have been bolstered by robust consumer spending despite weakening economic indicators, declining consumer confidence and increasing inflation," Hackett said.

How exposed are forwarders and ocean carriers to the slowdown?

The forecast implies a measured easing of U.S. inbound container demand through Q4, with November volumes dropping roughly 12% from September's revised level. Trans-Pacific carriers and U.S. West Coast gateways — where container rates have already edged lower in recent weeks — face a softer book of orders as holiday inventory work wraps.

Gold noted that most holiday merchandise has already crossed U.S. berths. "Last-minute replenishment and preparation for early 2027" will drive shipments for the balance of the year, he said, rather than discretionary peak-season surges.

What should the market watch next?

Carriers, 3PLs and BCOs will look to the November reading — projected at 2.0 million TEUs — as the first clean test of post-peak demand. A sharper drop would amplify pressure on trans-Pacific spot rates and inland drayage capacity, while a softer landing would confirm that retailers built inventory buffers early enough to absorb a measured seasonal step-down.

With 2026 imports still tracking ahead of 2025, the trajectory argues for continued capacity discipline on the trans-Pacific rather than a rapid post-peak collapse in vessel utilization or port call frequency into year-end.