US container imports reached their highest September volume on record in 2026 — 2,546,261 TEU, up 10.3% year over year and 24.8% above the pre-Covid mark of September 2019, according to Descartes' Global Shipping Report.

The monthly figure slipped 2.2% from August, a routine seasonal easing. The year-on-year gain is not routine. It landed amid Middle East maritime incidents, new carrier fuel surcharges, an expanded Section 232 tariff regime and unresolved Red Sea security questions — conditions that normally suppress, not lift, volumes.

China did most of the work. Imports of China-origin cargo totaled 924,454 TEU, up 4.5% (40,136 TEU) from August and 21.2% (161,682 TEU) from September 2025. China accounted for 36.3% of total US container imports, up from 34.0% in August — a two-point share gain in a single month, despite tariffs that were designed to do the opposite.

What is moving from China?

The China mix skews heavily consumer:

• Plastics (HS-39): 135,097 TEU, 14.6% of China-origin volume
• Furniture and bedding (HS-94): 123,574 TEU, 13.4%
• Toys and sporting goods (HS-95): 92,842 TEU, roughly 10%
• Machinery (HS-84) and electrical machinery (HS-85): a combined 17.6%
• Apparel, made-up textiles and footwear (HS-61 to HS-64): 11.1%

For shippers and forwarders, that mix matters: consumer discretionary goods dominate the lane, which ties September's strength directly to US household demand rather than industrial restocking.

What could break the run?

Descartes flags six risk factors, and two carry near-term dates.

Tariffs. Section 232 tariff treatment for specified pharmaceuticals took effect for additional companies on September 29. Section 301 and other Section 232 measures remain in force by origin and product. The record September therefore includes cargo that may have landed ahead of the new duties — a pull-forward caveat the report does not quantify.

Port congestion. Delays increased at eight of the top 10 US gateways in September, with the largest rise at New York/New Jersey. Whether that persists into October is the test: falling delays can signal either improved efficiency or weakening demand, and the direction is not yet clear.

Panama Canal. The Panama Canal Authority plans to raise total reserved daily slots to 33 from October 15, a partial restoration of transit capacity. Descartes advises watching whether the increase takes effect as announced, alongside draft limits, reservations and waits for unreserved ships.

Middle East and Red Sea. Reported incidents continue in and around the Strait of Hormuz, and carrier surcharges show how fuel and insurance risk is already feeding into freight costs and route choices. Some carriers have resumed selected Suez Canal services, but further disruption could restore Cape of Good Hope diversions — with knock-on effects for vessel capacity, transit times and schedule reliability.

The economy. The US remains an import-driven economy, Descartes notes. The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds target range to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16, and the Bureau of Economic Analysis' third estimate put second-quarter real GDP growth at 2.2% annualized, after a revised 2.5% in the first quarter.

The caveat cuts both ways. A 10.3% annual increase built on tariff-timed front-running and consumer spending is only as durable as the policy calendar and the household balance sheet behind it. October port-delay data and the October 15 Panama slot increase will tell shippers whether capacity is loosening just as peak-season demand firms.

By Marcus Bennett