Global ocean container schedule reliability dropped 2 percentage points to 27% on-time in September, a fourth consecutive monthly decline, while average vessel delay climbed to 6 days — meaning shippers on Asia-linked trades are now waiting roughly an extra week beyond plan. The figures come from Xeneta's September Schedule Reliability Scorecard.

Xeneta attributes the deterioration to a cluster of compounding causes: powerful typhoons that struck Asia from July through early September, elevated bunker costs, and strong peak-season demand. The analyst expects no firm floor in October, as disruption on Asian trade lanes continues.

Which lanes are worst hit?

The Far East-to-Europe trade collapsed to 4% on-time in September, with an average delay of 9.9 days — the lane's worst monthly result since September 2021, when on-time performance bottomed at 3% during the Covid pandemic.

Asia-to-North America reliability held unchanged at a dismal 20%, but average delay lengthened by 0.8 days month over month to 6.9 days. Xeneta said Chinese port congestion is increasingly translating into berth-arrival delays for shippers in Europe and North America.

The rate environment compounds the operational squeeze. Xeneta's spot-market average from China to the U.S. West Coast hit $7,717 per FEU in early October — more than four times the $1,778 recorded in September 2025 and 8% above the start of September 2026. Long-term rates rose 26% month over month to $3,649 per FEU on Oct. 1.

How are carriers performing?

Every carrier tracked by Xeneta posted its highest average delay of the past 12 months in September. Four carriers also hit 12-month lows in on-time arrivals:

• CMA CGM: 30%
• Cosco: 18%
• Hapag-Lloyd: 45%
• Yang Ming: 4%

The performance spread between carriers narrowed to 43 percentage points, from 45 points in August — a sign that the weakest results are dragging down the strongest. Maersk, the month's most reliable carrier, slipped from 51% to 47%, while Yang Ming marked the low end at 4%.

The Gemini network of Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, launched on a premise of on-time performance, declined more sharply than other alliances, falling from 70% on-time in June to 40% in September. Its weekly on-time rate dropped from 62% in the first week of August to 34% in the week ended Sept. 28, with partial data for the week of Oct. 5 showing 28%.

Where is congestion spreading?

Congestion has spread downstream from China into Southeast Asia. Singapore's average daily vessel queue nearly doubled to 22 ships, and average wait time rose from 1.9 to 3.1 days as the transshipment hub absorbed the effects of congestion at Chinese gateways.

Regional snapshots show the pressure points:

• Southeast Asia: 2.0-day average vessel wait, 23% of vessels waiting
• Africa: most congested region despite improvement, 2.5-day wait, 32% waiting
• Northeast Asia: 30% of vessels at port waiting, average wait up 0.3 days to 1.6 days

Shanghai's anchorage queue shortened from 101 to 86 vessels per day, although average wait lengthened from 1.9 to 2.7 days.

Are capacity cuts coming?

Carriers blanked only 6% of planned capacity on Far East-to-Europe and 8% on Far East-to-North America in September — their third-lowest blanking levels in 21 months — as delays and pre-Golden Week demand absorbed available capacity.

Announced blank sailings will rise in October to at least 17% of planned capacity on Far East-to-Europe and 13% on Far East-to-North America. Yet planned Far East-to-Europe capacity in October is the highest of any month in a 22-month window, leaving carriers limited slack to offset delays through cancellations.

For shippers, the commercial implications are immediate. Xeneta advised adding lead time to October bookings and asking carriers directly which services will be protected from capacity cuts. It also warned that reliability, port rotations, unscheduled calls and capacity management should sit at the center of carrier accountability discussions ahead of 2027 contract tenders. With blanking set to double this month and Gemini's on-time share still sliding, the odds of a reliability recovery before the tender season look thin.