Global container schedule reliability fell to 27% on-time in September, down 2 percentage points from August and matching the February floor, as average vessel delay climbed for a fourth consecutive month to 6.0 days — a 2.4-day rise since the start of Q2, Xeneta's Schedule Reliability Scorecard shows.

The end-of-Q3 slump leaves little prospect of a firm floor in October. Continued deterioration on Asian trades follows a sequence of powerful typhoons that landed from July through early September, and the knock-on effects are still compounding constraints on the main east-west lanes.

Which trades collapsed?

Asia-linked trades sit at or near 12-month lows in on-time arrivals and 12-month highs in average delay. The compound effect of the typhoons, Xeneta notes, shows the right combination of circumstances "can continue to eat away at global reliability months after the fact and far from the original localization."

• Far East–Europe nose-dived to 4% on-time with 9.9 days of average delay — its worst month since September 2021, when it hit 3%.
• Far East–North America held flat at 20% on-time, but delay rose 0.8 days from August to 6.9 days.
• Europe–North America led all trades for a second month, improving 8 points month on month to 49% on-time — its highest since August 2025 — with the lowest average delay of any trade at 1.9 days.
• South America West Coast and East Coast were the only trades to improve on both metrics, gaining 10pp and 12pp respectively and cutting average delay by up to 1.0 day — timely relief ahead of Brazil's peak export season.

Rates are moving against shippers in parallel. Xeneta's spot average for China–US West Coast reached $7,717 per FEU in early October, more than four times the $1,778 recorded in September 2025 and up 8% on the start of September 2026. Long-term rates, catching up from a much lower base, stood at $3,649 per FEU on 1 October after a 26% month-on-month rise.

How are carriers performing?

Every carrier posted its highest average delay of the past 12 months in September. Only four hit a 12-month low in on-time arrivals: CMA CGM (30%), Cosco (18%), Hapag-Lloyd (45%) and Yang Ming (4%).

The growing risk lies in severity, not frequency, of late arrivals. Buffer days in contracts and inventory plans are being consumed rapidly, and contingency plans set in motion today may not hold up by the time the next booking arrives, Xeneta cautions.

The spread between best and worst carriers compressed from 45pp in August to 43pp — but for the wrong reasons. The floor fell as Yang Ming hit 4%, while the ceiling came down as Maersk slipped from 51% to 47%. Leaders are falling rather than underperformers catching up, which makes holding premium-priced carriers accountable essential for shippers heading into 2027 tenders.

The Gemini network has fallen harder than rival alliances. Both partners have declined month on month for five straight months, and network reliability has dropped from 70% on-time in June to 40% in September. Weekly data shows the tail-end of typhoon delays stacking up out of Asia: from 62% in the first week of August to 34% by the week of 28 September. The week of 5 October already reads 28% on partial data, with no floor yet in sight.

Where is congestion concentrated?

Africa still leads global congestion despite improving the most, with average vessel wait times falling nearly a full day to 2.5 days and the share of vessels waiting steady at 32%. Alongside a modest 0.1-day dip in Northern Europe, it was the only region to improve.

Southeast Asia follows at 2.0 days of average wait, edging past the Middle East, with 23% of vessels waiting. Singapore's queue nearly doubled from 12 to 22 vessels per day at a 29% waiting share, and average wait spiked from 1.9 to 3.1 days as the hub absorbed downstream effects from Chinese port congestion.

• The Middle East held flat at 1.9 days of wait and 26% of vessels waiting. Sohar continues to absorb over 180,000 displaced TEU per week as a pressure valve for the Strait of Hormuz — less than half the 423,000 TEU previously bound for Jebel Ali.
• Northeast Asia saw 30% of vessels at port waiting, with average wait up 0.3 days to 1.6 days, as typhoon aftermath and pre-Golden Week demand kept space tight and yard utilization high.
• Shanghai's queue shortened from 101 to 86 vessels at anchorage on an average day, but wait lengthened from 1.9 to 2.7 days — proof that a short queue can still hide a long wait, and vice versa.

Chinese anchorages are clearing, but the disruption is moving downstream rather than disappearing. Ningbo and Yantian waits eased in the same month Far East–Europe hit 4%, and the delay is landing at berths in Europe and North America. Shanghai, Ningbo and Yantian still held 0.74 million TEU at anchor as of 6 October.

What happens to blank sailings in October?

Carriers blanked just 6% of planned capacity on Far East–Europe in September — the third-lowest share in 21 months — and 8% on Far East–North America, also third-lowest, as delayed capacity bunched against pre-Golden Week demand.

October tells a different story. Announced blanking steps up to at least 17% of planned capacity on Far East–Europe and 13% on Far East–North America. The announced share still sits below October 2025 levels, which could mean carriers are keeping tonnage in rotation to work off the typhoon backlog — or that more cancellations will land in the coming weeks.

Planned Far East–Europe capacity for October is the highest of any month in a 22-month window, and Far East–North America's is third-highest. With a smaller Golden Week cut than 2025 and a trade running at 4% on-time, there is even less slack to offset delays with voided sailings. Shippers in Europe and North America should build more lead time into October bookings and press carriers on which services are being protected from capacity cuts.

The pricing signal is equally direct: China–US West Coast spot rates now sit at more than twice the long-term rate, $7,717 versus $3,649 per FEU. Contracts are repricing upward, renewals are likely to cost more, and delays now hit shippers' budgets as well as their lead times.