U.S. rail traffic rises 7.8% as intermodal gains 11.3%

Marcus Bennett

U.S. rail traffic rose 7.8% in the week ended Oct. 24 from the same week in 2025, as intermodal volume jumped 11.3% and carloads gained 3.6%, Association of American Railroads (AAR) data showed.

Intermodal covers containers and trailers. Its 11.3% weekly gain exceeded carload growth by 7.7 percentage points and ran ahead of the segment’s 4.7% year-to-date increase through the first 42 weeks of 2026. The data show faster rail freight demand, but not how much extra capacity carriers provided.

What drove the weekly carload gain?

Eight of the 10 carload commodity groups increased from a year earlier. AAR recorded:

• Petroleum and petroleum products: up 15.4%, the largest percentage gain.
• Motor vehicles and parts: up 15.3%.
• Forest products: up 11.7%.
• Metallic ores and metals: up 11.6%.
• Farm products excluding grain, and food: down 3.7%.
• Grain: down 1.4%, a rare decline.

Petroleum and motor-vehicle sectors supplied the strongest percentage momentum, at 15.4% and 15.3%. AAR did not provide tonnage or car counts, so the release cannot show whether the gains reflect more cars, heavier loads or a shift in traffic mix.

How strong is the trend beyond one week?

Through the first 42 weeks of 2026, combined U.S. rail traffic rose 3.8%. Carloads increased 2.7%, while intermodal rose 4.7%. The latest week’s 7.8% total gain exceeded the year-to-date pace by 4 percentage points; intermodal’s weekly gain ran 6.6 points above its cumulative rate, while carloads exceeded theirs by 0.9 points.

Over the full period, grain remained the strongest-growing carload commodity group, up 10.6%. Metallic ores and metals followed at 8.6%, and petroleum and petroleum products rose 8%. Coal fell 1.6%, while motor vehicles and parts were unchanged.

Grain’s 1.4% weekly decline against a 10.6% year-to-date gain means earlier loading more than offset the latest setback. The report’s market summary stated: “Weekly traffic growth continues to outpace the year-to-date rate, led by intermodal shipments.”

What happened across North America?

Combined traffic on nine reporting U.S., Canadian and Mexican railroads rose 8% for the week. North American carloads increased 5%, while intermodal volume rose 10.8%, putting the intermodal lead at 5.8 percentage points.

Canada’s weekly carload traffic rose 7.6% and intermodal increased 5.5%. Mexico’s carloads gained 12.7%, while intermodal jumped 33.4%. Canadian growth leaned toward carloads by 2.1 points; Mexico’s leaned toward intermodal by 20.7 points.

Through the first 42 weeks, total North American rail traffic rose 3.3%. Cumulative traffic increased 1.5% in Canada and 5.2% in Mexico.

The AAR figures do not name the nine reporting railroads or disclose country results by operator, origin-destination lane or port. They also omit absolute carloads, intermodal units, TEU, tonnage, rates and capacity percentages. The data therefore establish direction and relative segment growth, but not operator performance or port-level consequences.

What can shippers, carriers and forwarders conclude?

For shippers and forwarders, the 11.3% U.S. intermodal gain and 33.4% Mexican gain indicate a busier market for rail-linked container and trailer movements than in 2025.

If those volume gains persist, demand could pressure equipment and slot availability. However, AAR reported no capacity percentage, pricing, dwell or on-time performance, so the data establish neither a rate increase nor service deterioration.

For carriers, higher traffic can improve asset utilization, but revenue and profit effects depend on rate, mix and cost, none of which the AAR release provides. For forwarders, Mexico’s result warrants checking gateways, border dwell and port pairs, because country totals do not reveal whether the increase came from domestic movement, cross-border freight or port-to-inland transfers.

What should the next data show?

The next test is whether AAR’s next weekly and year-to-date releases show intermodal sustaining an above-trend pace, because only a sustained increase would support a firmer call on rail capacity, equipment availability and rates. Until then, stronger volumes are the evidence; tighter rail supply is not.