US Rail Traffic Jumps 8.5% as Steelmaking and Petroleum Commodities Drive Gains

US railroads moved 540,135 carloads and intermodal units in the week ending Oct. 17, an 8.5% jump from the same week a year earlier, according to Association of American Railroads data. Intermodal did the heaviest lifting: 308,015 containers and trailers crossed the network, up 12.6% year over year, while carloads totaled 232,120 units, a 3.5% gain.

Behind the headline numbers sits a commodity story. Industrial output, particularly in steelmaking and energy, is filling railcars faster than most sectors, giving railroads traction in an otherwise uncertain economy.

Which commodities are moving?

Nine of the 10 carload commodity groups posted year-over-year increases. Metallic ores and metals used in steelmaking and other production led all gainers, rising 14.5%.

That rail strength tracks directly with steel output. Domestic raw-steel production increased 4.1% from the previous week, the latest American Iron and Steel Institute figures show — demand that moves in lockstep with rail volumes for ores and finished metals.

Petroleum and related products improved 8.8%, and grain moved ahead 7%. Only one category retreated: nonmetallic minerals such as sand and stone fell 3.2% year over year, the sole soft spot in an otherwise broad-based rally.

For context, the 12.6% intermodal gain means railroads handled roughly one in eight more containers and trailers than in the comparable 2025 week — a pace of growth that tightens intermodal capacity and strengthens carriers' hand in pricing discussions with shippers and forwarders.

How does 2026 stack up so far?

The year-to-date picture confirms the trend is not a one-week anomaly. For the first 41 weeks of 2026, US railroads posted:

• 9,374,717 carloads, up 2.7% from the same period in 2025
• 11,687,964 intermodal units, up 4.6%
• 21,062,681 total carloads and intermodal units, a 3.7% combined improvement

Intermodal continues to outpace carload growth by roughly two to one across the year, a gap that has widened in recent weeks as consumer-facing freight accelerates.

What about North America as a whole?

The gains extend beyond US borders. North American rail volume for the week, reported by nine US, Canadian and Mexican railroads, totaled 339,034 carloads, up 3.2%, and 392,681 intermodal units, up 10.8% year over year.

Total combined weekly North American rail traffic reached 731,715 carloads and intermodal units, up 7.2%. For the first 41 weeks of 2026, cumulative North American volume stood at 28,828,693 carloads and intermodal units, a 3.2% increase compared with 2025.

Mexico's and Canada's inclusion in the intermodal surge — nearly 11% growth across the continent — suggests cross-border trade flows, not purely domestic consumption, are feeding the box boom.

What does this mean for shippers and carriers?

For shippers, sustained volume growth near these levels could gradually erode the slack that has kept intermodal pricing competitive, particularly on lanes serving steel, energy and grain corridors. For carriers, the commodity mix is favorable: metallic ores and petroleum traffic feeds carload franchises, while double-digit intermodal growth supports the domestic container business railroads have prioritized.

Forwarders watching the data should note the divergence between modes — carload growth of 3.5% against intermodal's 12.6% signals where incremental capacity will be needed first.

With steel production rising week over week and nine of 10 commodity groups in positive territory, the trajectory points to continued volume pressure on rail networks through the fourth quarter, barring a downturn in industrial output.