North American rail traffic rose 3.5% in week 38, with U.S. intermodal volume surging 6.3% year over year and domestic intermodal running at a record pace, according to Association of American Railroads data.

The headline numbers look strong across the board. Intermodal led the continent-wide gain at 5.3%, while carloads rose 1.5%. In the U.S. alone, carloads climbed 3%, lifting the overall domestic year-over-year gain to 4.8%. Strip out coal and grain to get a cleaner read on the industrial economy, and U.S. carload traffic was up 4.9% for the week.

But railroads and their largest intermodal partners are already flagging the constraint that could cap the boom: a shrinking pool of drayage drivers.

The drayage squeeze

The drayage workforce has eroded steadily since the height of the supply chain crisis. Jason Hilsenbeck, who runs LoadMatch and drayage.com, tracked 531,000 drivers registered to handle drayage at the 2022 peak. By the end of last year that figure had fallen to 483,000. As of July of this year, only 467,000 drayage drivers were available to move 53-foot containers — a 3% decline during a period of rising volume.

"If you lose 63,000 drivers in a 2-year period for drayage capacity," said Bill Stephens, the available pool may already be limiting what intermodal carriers can offer shippers. The arithmetic is unforgiving: every additional intermodal box moving by rail needs a tractor and a driver at both ends of the ramp move. If that driver is not there, the load cannot be sold, no matter how competitive the rail linehaul rate.

JB Hunt flagged the issue directly at an investment conference, signaling that its own growth is constrained by how much drayage capacity it can secure. That admission from one of the largest domestic intermodal operators in the market signals the bottleneck is commercial, not hypothetical. For shippers, the practical consequence is that intermodal capacity will tighten first in inland markets where drayage pools are thinnest — and that spot intermodal pricing could firm even if highway truckload rates stay flat.

The counterargument, for now, favors continued momentum.

"As long as the truck capacity remains tight and the fuel prices remain elevated and railroad service levels hold up, those are 3 good things that would tell you that intermodal volume is going to continue to be on a tear."

Chemicals and petroleum rebound

Beneath the aggregate figures, the carload detail points to a genuine industrial pickup. Chemicals and petroleum shipments — the second-largest carload commodity category — jumped 7.7%, broken out as a 7.2% gain in chemicals and a 9.4% rise in petroleum and petroleum products. Metallic ores and metals posted an even stronger 9.5% increase.

The chemical rebound is notable because shipments had softened from an early-year record pace beginning around April and May. A return to growth in that category, alongside metals, suggests the industrial leg of rail demand is re-engaging after a spring lull rather than simply riding seasonal effects.

One persistent soft spot is motor vehicles and parts, which fell 1.8% compared with a year ago. The decline is largely a base-effect issue: buyers accelerated EV purchases in August and September 2023 ahead of the federal tax credit expiration on September 30 of that year, inflating the prior-year comparison. With auto sales continuing on a pace above 16 million units, the underlying demand picture looks steadier than the year-over-year figures suggest. Plastics, resins and finished-vehicle moves tied to that sales rate should hold carload support in the months ahead.

Service as a conversion engine

BNSF's Quantum intermodal product, operated with JB Hunt and carrying a 95%-or-better on-time guarantee, has grown every month, as has a companion cross-border service into Mexico. That trajectory is a signal that service reliability — not price alone — is the key driver of volume conversion from highway. Shippers have historically been willing to pay the intermodal premium over truckload only when rail can commit to predictable transit times, and Quantum's monthly growth suggests that commitment is landing.

The railroads' ability to hold intermodal gains over time has historically depended on keeping fuel prices high enough to make rail economical. When diesel eases, marginal freight tends to migrate back to trucks. The current configuration — tight truck capacity, elevated fuel, improving rail service — remains the most favorable mix for intermodal share gains in years, provided the drayage pool stops shrinking.

Brightline files for bankruptcy

On a separate note, Brightline filed for bankruptcy protection. The Florida passenger carrier continues to operate and is posting record revenue and record passenger loadings. The company uses an aggressive dynamic pricing model — sending discount emails to fill trains and charging full price when seats are scarce — to maximize revenue per seat. Analysts expect the proceeding to result in a debt restructuring rather than a shutdown, allowing service to continue.

For freight watchers, the Brightline filing is a reminder that ridership and revenue records do not insulate capital-intensive rail operators from balance-sheet strain — a dynamic freight railroads manage through cyclical capex discipline.

The forward question for intermodal is whether the record volume pace can outrun a drayage pool that has shed roughly 64,000 drivers since 2022. If registrations do not stabilize, expect carriers to ration ramp capacity and intermodal rates to detach from soft truckload benchmarks by the peak season.