SAN DIEGO — Stepped-up enforcement against Mexican B-1 visa drivers has pulled cross-border truckers out of the market, and the timing could hardly be worse: two-way U.S.-Mexico freight volumes are rising at the same time, tightening capacity and pushing rates up in Southern California during the fall peak.

That collision between growing nearshoring demand and shrinking driver supply dominated "The Nearshoring Update: USA-Mexico Freight" panel Tuesday at Trimble Insight 2026 in San Diego, a conference that drew 1,200 attendees and more than 200 sessions across three days.

Panelists Ben Enriquez of Transport Capacity Services, Carime Duck — a licensed customs broker and president of the San Diego Customs Broker Association — and Ricardo Malacara, sales director at cargo-security technology provider Overhaul, laid out a cross-border market where capacity, compliance and security risks are compounding.

Nearshoring is not slowing down

Despite a year of tariff headlines and geopolitical uncertainty, Enriquez said the underlying industrial logic of nearshoring remains intact.

"The reality is that nearshoring, the ball was already rolling," Enriquez said. "There were already manufacturing plants and expansions being done, and they continue to happen."

He pointed to continued growth in two-way commerce as evidence of how deeply the two countries' manufacturing sectors are integrated. Automotive components in particular can cross the border multiple times before a vehicle is finished. Companies are taking a more cautious approach because of uncertainty surrounding the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, he acknowledged, but "nearshoring is a reality."

Driver enforcement reshapes cross-border economics

The supply side is moving in the opposite direction. Enforcement involving B-1 visa drivers, non-domiciled commercial driver's licenses and English-language requirements has changed the economics and operating models of cross-border trucking companies, Enriquez said.

B-1 drivers generally can move international freight into the U.S. and return with international cargo, but cannot perform domestic point-to-point moves — cabotage. Enriquez said enforcement against drivers accused of improper domestic moves has removed drivers from the market. Combined with restrictions affecting non-domiciled CDL holders, the pool available to both cross-border and domestic carriers is shrinking.

Some Mexican trucking companies that built U.S. operations to offer door-to-door service are retreating to the traditional model of handing trailers or freight to U.S. carriers at the border because they can no longer staff the runs. "The market has changed in a lot of ways, and these issues are making it lose a lot of drivers," Enriquez said.

Fuel costs add another layer. Small and midsize carriers that pay for diesel immediately but wait 30 to 45 days for customer payment are trimming truck counts for lack of drivers or working capital.

"We are seeing that the volume is increasing," Enriquez said — even as supply contracts.

Duck said the crunch is already visible in Southern California's fall peak: driver availability has tightened, trucking rates are rising, and fuel costs are driving repeated price increases.

Malacara warned the capacity shortage itself creates security exposure. "The lack of capacity on drivers and trucks that can do cross-border increases the operation, increases the dwell times, increases the handoffs, which in turn increases the risk," he said. Freight waiting for drivers can sit at transfer locations that lack security, and companies scrambling for capacity may take chances on unfamiliar carriers.

Theft concentrates on Bajío corridors

Nearshoring has also concentrated more high-value freight on Mexico's existing infrastructure, particularly through the Bajío manufacturing region in central Mexico, where road, rail, airport and port capacity has not kept pace with manufacturing investment.

"Concentrating freight, concentrating high-value moving goods in the same highway has increased the risk for all the shippers and all the cargo owners," Malacara said.

Cargo theft is shifting geographically — declining in some traditional hot spots while rising in the Bajío. Malacara cited an 11% year-over-year increase in theft in the region, with roughly 80% of incidents involving violence or threats of violence.

The perpetrators are increasingly organized. "This is not a casual activity," Malacara said. "These are organized, or these are structured organizations that plan, that have technology." Criminal groups use GPS jammers, plan routes and operating windows, and sometimes obtain inside information identifying valuable shipments.

Food and beverages top the stolen-commodity list because they are easy to resell and hard to trace, followed by construction materials, auto parts and electronics. Pharmaceuticals are becoming a more prominent target.

A GPS tracker alone is no defense, Malacara cautioned — thieves with jammers can defeat basic tracking within seconds. Companies need protocols covering what happens when tracking is disrupted, which authorities to contact and how security partners respond. "You need to stop treating the GPS, the dot in the map, as your guide," he said.

Customs compliance moves upstream

Duck challenged a common nearshoring assumption: manufacturing in Mexico does not automatically qualify a product for preferential tariff treatment under USMCA. A manufacturer assembling furniture in Mexico, for example, may source materials that knock the finished product out of qualification under rules of origin.

"You need to look at your supply chain," Duck said. She urged companies to bring customs specialists into sourcing, engineering and manufacturing decisions early — a process she called "classification engineering." Record keeping is also growing more critical as customs authorities demand more detail on classifications, sourcing and transactions.

AI is now embedded on both sides of the border. Customs is using it for enforcement, Duck said, while brokers deploy it as a secondary compliance check for missing information and clerical errors. Transportation providers are automating shipment updates, giving brokers near-instant notifications when trucks leave ports or cross the border. "I don't see like it's taking jobs," Duck said. "I think it's giving us more visibility."

Overhaul uses AI to analyze millions of data points to flag higher-risk lanes, times, commodities and shipments, warn drivers entering dangerous locations, detect possible GPS jamming and spot fraud involving DOT numbers, bills of lading and invoices. The goal, Malacara said, is prevention, not recovery: "For us, a recovered load, it's a sign of our job not being well done."

Shippers advised to lock in capacity now

Enriquez's advice to shippers: diversify carrier networks now rather than depending on a single provider, and build partnerships before freight demand accelerates further. "I think right now, the name of the game is secure capacity and form partnerships," he said, noting that a rise in mini-bids over recent months shows shippers are already reassessing their networks.

"As a shipper, I would recommend you to get more arrows on your quiver and make sure that you have all your capacity covered," he said.

With carriers cutting capacity as nearshoring volumes expand, the executives' shared message was that shippers who wait for the next demand surge to secure trucks, compliance expertise and security plans will pay for the delay in rates, dwell and risk.