Truckload Spot Rates Jump 52% as Road-to-Rail Savings Hit 30%

Truckload spot rates have climbed 52% year over year to $3.56 per mile, according to FreightWaves SONAR data presented in a Nov. 11 market update. Contract rates rose 25% to $2.88 per mile — a 52-week high, but still lagging spot by a wide margin as annual bid season approaches.

That persistent spread between spot and contract pricing is squeezing shipper budgets at the worst possible moment. Shippers locking in annual truckload contracts now face the choice of paying well above last year's levels or pushing volume toward rail, where pricing has barely moved.

And rail is offering a historically large incentive to switch. The SONAR Intermodal Cost Savings Index showed a 30.2% savings advantage for rail as of Nov. 8. That figure has held above 30% for five consecutive months and has nearly doubled year over year, while intermodal contract rates rose only 3% to 5% — a fraction of the 25% truckload contract increase.

"Savings have nearly doubled year over year and have held above 30% for five months," said Julie Van de Kamp, citing an MCP-generated analysis of SONAR data. "They are easing slightly as intermodal spot catches up, but the gap remains historically wide."

Are rail volumes confirming the shift?

Rail traffic suggests shippers are acting on that arithmetic. October outbound rail averaged 44,700 units per month, the highest monthly reading since 2026 and a 9% gain year over year. Volumes slipped to roughly 43,800 month-to-date in November, though Van de Kamp attributed the dip to two discrete disruptions rather than demand: a tech outage at CSX and flooding on a BNSF line through New Mexico, each interrupting service for roughly one to two days in late October.

The composition of that traffic points to genuine freight demand, not empty repositioning. Loaded outbound containers averaged 35,500 in October, up 9% year over year, and loaded boxes made up 80% of total outbound volume.

"The truckload market is moderately tight. Spot rates are up about 50% year over year, while intermodal contract rates have barely moved," Van de Kamp said. "That gap keeps road-to-rail savings near 30%, and rail volumes are running at 2026 highs."

On the international side, domestic intermodal volumes rose 8% year over year in October, while international intermodal gained 11%. Both segments have softened from their August and September peaks.

Inbound ocean TEU bookings, tracked by SONAR's IOTI index, came in at 1,904 month-to-date in November — up 11% year over year but down roughly 5% to 6% from the July peak, with further softening expected into December.

Is truckload capacity loosening?

Tender rejections sit at 12.88%, roughly double November 2025 levels — a clear sign of a tighter market than a year ago. But the metric is down 1.3 points month over month and 17% from its June peak, signaling that capacity is gradually easing from summer tightness.

Van de Kamp flagged drayage capacity as a potential emerging constraint on intermodal growth. SONAR does not track drayage-specific indices, but short-haul truckload volumes in the 100-to-250-mile range are up 14% year over year — growth she said is likely driven in part by rising drayage activity as freight shifts from road to rail. Short-haul tender rejections are up approximately 5% to 5.5% year over year, though that segment remains somewhat looser than the broader truckload market.

Diesel averaged $6.13 per gallon nationally in the latest DOE reading, down 2.6% week over week — a rare piece of cost relief for carriers and shippers alike.

For shippers heading into bid season, the calculus is stark: pay 25% more for truckload contracts, or move freight to rail while the savings gap stays near 30%. If intermodal spot rates keep catching up, as Van de Kamp noted they already are, that window of historically wide savings may narrow in the months ahead.