The SONAR Pricing Power Index fell to 70 this week from 71, its fourth consecutive weekly decline, yet carriers still hold the upper hand in rate negotiations heading into the fourth quarter. Softer intermodal contract rates and a roughly 2% dip in ocean import bookings drove the slide. Truckload tender rejections held steady near 13.9%.

On the PPI's 0–100 scale, 50 marks a historically balanced market. A reading of 70 means pricing power continues to favor carriers over shippers.

Key takeaways for the week of Oct. 12, 2026

• PPI: 70, down from 71 — fourth straight weekly decline, still firmly carrier-favorable.
• Three-month outlook: 76, down from 79 — the model gave back most of last week's gain but still expects carrier leverage to build into mid-January.
• Capacity is steady — the national tender rejection rate (STRI) sat at 13.85%, in the 83rd percentile of the past five years.
• Intermodal contract rates fell to $1.61 a mile from $1.68, the single biggest drag on the index.
• Spot rates held near July levels — the national spot rate eased to $3.52 a mile from $3.56, still in the 95th percentile.
• Rail volume remains elevated in the 99th percentile as truck-to-rail conversion continues.

What pulled the index lower?

Two metrics accounted for most of the decline. Intermodal contract rates dropped to the 36th percentile from the 54th, taking roughly 0.9 points off the score on their own. Ocean import bookings slipped about 2% to the 48th percentile from the 56th, costing about 0.6 points.

Small gains in van contract rates, the spot-contract spread, rejections and accepted volume clawed back about half a point.

Capacity: rejections hold in carrier territory

The national tender rejection rate was essentially flat at 13.85% versus 13.84% last week. Weekly rejections have stayed between roughly 13.3% and 14.4% since early August. That's well below the 17–18% peak of late June. It's still more than two and a half times the level of two years ago.

SONAR's model expects rejections to move higher from here rather than hold at current levels.

Demand: rail strong, truckload soft

Rail volume eased less than 1% to 35,575 loaded containers but held in the 99th percentile. Truckload carriers continue to be more selective about the freight they accept, pushing loads onto rail on lanes of roughly 550 to 1,500 miles. Accepted truckload volume rose about 1% but remains near the bottom of its range, in the 13th percentile. Ocean import bookings softened, yet still run above last year's levels.

Pricing: contract rates catching up to spot

Van contract rates ticked up to $2.74 a mile, moving to the 84th percentile, as carriers reprice contracts upward. The spot-contract spread narrowed to negative $0.11 from negative $0.15. It has been negative since mid-September because spot rates have pulled back from their early-July peak of $3.80 while contract rates keep rising.

What does the three-month outlook signal?

The three-month PPI outlook trimmed to 76 but remains well above the current reading of 70. The model projects tender rejections reaching the 93rd percentile by mid-January, with spot rates and rail volume at the very top of their historical ranges.

For shippers, the message is blunt: the index is drifting lower, but a 70 reading plus a 76 three-month projection means carriers should keep pricing leverage into mid-January.