JPMorgan Chase & Co. estimates crude flows through the Gulf at 17.5 million barrels a day as tanker captains complete nightly shuttle runs through the Strait of Hormuz with no navigational lights, a single radar, and US Navy check-ins every 30 minutes.

A Filipino captain in his early 40s, on vacation after a three-month Hormuz rotation, said his 300-meter supertanker ferried two million barrels at a time through the 100-meter-deep channel about a mile off the Omani coast. Crews steered by lighthouses and shoreline references rather than electronic aids.

"I'm just lucky because I still remember the traditional navigation, the old school," he said. "They required no navigational lights. It's quite challenging."

What does a Hormuz transit actually look like?

Crews shut the breaker on the AIS transponder before entering the strait to mask their position. Bridge watch is doubled. LNG tankers barricade main decks with sandbags; oil tanker crews stack water drums near the bridge and keep the emergency fire pump running for the full crossing.

The Filipino captain saw a jet and a helicopter overhead on one voyage. On another, an explosion went off ahead of his bridge; the US Navy told him to keep moving because other vessels behind him were pressing on.

How is the US coordinating the route?

American planners have worked with shippers since early summer on waypoints and Iranian mine avoidance. US Central Command said forces have "assisted thousands of ships through the Strait of Hormuz in recent months by providing coordinated protection."

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has also tracked Middle East crude flows as the corridor rebuilds capacity. JPMorgan's 17.5 million-barrel daily estimate points to volumes approaching pre-war baselines.

How risky is each crossing?

Shipping executives quoted in the source put the probability of being hit at roughly one in 20. The Filipino captain saw an explosion ahead on one voyage and was the target of an attack on another, with no damage and no injuries in either case.

The International Maritime Organization counts 24 seafarers killed in regional attacks since the war began. Iran maintains its own blacklist of tankers engaged in the trade.

"Tankers are always at risk all the time," the captain said. "It's a very dangerous vessel."

Who is taking these contracts?

One shipowner offered crews an extra six months of pay to shuttle through the strait. The Filipino captain said his most recent contract ran a month shorter than usual but paid a multiple of his standard salary.

Much of the world's tanker crew draws from the Philippines and India. "My family is quite scared, but I told them that I can handle the situation," the captain said. "I'm very proud."

LNG carriers are fewer and more cautious. At least eight LNG ships transited the strait in the two weeks before publication, a second captain said, each with US safety assurances.

What is the commercial picture?

The transits serve as a lifeline for Gulf energy producers and a windfall for shipowners and commodity traders positioned for the rebound. Voyage economics now reflect a multi-month pay premium per crew member, plus elevated war-risk underwriting on each hull.

US Central Command said it remains "laser-focused" on increasing maritime traffic flow through the corridor. As long as captains volunteer to cross, the math supports the trade: a one-in-twenty risk against a six-month pay bonus on the world's most-watched crude artery.

"It can happen any time," the Filipino captain said.

The captain's children waited for his contract to end. He's ready to go back.