Container ship capacity moving through the Suez Canal has passed half of pre-crisis levels for the first time since Red Sea diversions began. An average of 753,000 TEU transited the waterway each week in the first two weeks of October 2026, BIMCO reported, citing Clarksons Research data. In the same period of 2023, the figure was 1.46 million TEU.

The milestone marks the sharpest step yet in a rerouting wave that started in July 2026, when Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd brought their AE15/SE3 Asia–Mediterranean service back to the canal after nearly three years of sailings around the Cape of Good Hope.

How fast is the recovery moving?

Fast, by recent standards. During the first two weeks of October, 36% of container ship capacity travelling via either the Suez Canal or the Cape of Good Hope used the canal. Between 2024 and mid-2026, that share averaged just 8%. Before the Red Sea attacks, it stood at 80%.

So the canal has clawed back a third of the traffic that matters, but it is still well short of the four-fifths share it once carried. The recovery is incomplete by BIMCO's own reading.

The return has also spread across alliances, not just one carrier. Changes followed across the Gemini Cooperation network, and members of the Ocean Alliance and Premier Alliance, along with MSC, have announced revised routings. In total, lines have announced routing changes affecting 16 services since early July.

The balance between directions is improving too. In the third quarter, northbound capacity equalled 75% of southbound capacity. By early October, that had climbed to 81% — a sign that backhaul sailings, not just headhaul strings, are returning to the shorter route.

What does this change for freight markets?

The mechanism here is simple: shorter routes absorb less ship capacity. BIMCO estimates that Cape of Good Hope diversions increased global demand for container ship capacity by roughly 10%. That extra demand is now draining out of the market as vessels switch back to Suez.

"We estimate that rerouting away from the Suez Canal increased global container ship demand by about 10%. That increase is now reducing quickly," said Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO.

For carriers, effective supply grows without a single new ship being delivered. For shippers and forwarders, that points toward looser vessel availability on Asia–Europe lanes, where the tonnage squeeze of the diversion years has supported rates. The 10% capacity tailwind that kept utilisation tight is unwinding.

One brake remains. Congestion at Asian ports could delay the full impact on vessel availability and the supply-demand balance, BIMCO cautioned. Ships stuck in queues outside Shanghai or Singapore tie up capacity just as surely as long Cape routings do, so the market may not feel the full benefit of the Suez return immediately.

The road back is not finished

Traffic through the canal still sits below pre-disruption levels, and the gap between 36% and the historic 80% share tells its own story: some lines are holding back, whether for security, scheduling or network reasons. The 16 service changes announced since July could yet be joined by more.

The direction of travel, though, is clear. If the rerouting pace of the past three months holds, the 10% capacity injection from Cape diversions will keep shrinking — and with it, one of the main structural props under container rates since 2024.