Russia's October Oil Export Revenue Hit $21.2 Billion, IEA Says

Russia booked $21.2 billion in crude and petroleum-product export revenue in October, up about 65% from a year earlier and the strongest monthly haul since May, the International Energy Agency said in its report Friday.

Crude did the heavy lifting, accounting for more than 80% of the total, as Ukrainian attacks on oil refineries pressed down on Russian petroleum-product output and exports.

Why did Urals and ESPO clear above $100?

The IEA put the price move down to hostilities in the Middle East: near-daily attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and intense strikes by Houthis on Saudi energy infrastructure. Russia's key crude blends, Urals and ESPO, topped $100 a barrel last month.

The routing matters more than the benchmark. China and India are Russia's main buyers, and Russian barrels bound for them don't need to cross Hormuz to get there. So the tankers absorbing war risk in the Gulf were no longer the only path for Russian crude, and demand for those barrels held firm.

Where does the oil money actually reach the budget?

Oil and gas supply about a fifth of Russia's budget revenue, and the cost of the invasion of Ukraine has strained the wartime economy. Government data published Tuesday show a full-year budget deficit expected to reach 3.2% of gross domestic product this year.

Export receipts, though, don't flow straight into the treasury. The federal budget collects levies from producers rather than taking export revenue directly, and it hands the industry generous subsidies at the same time. Bloomberg calculations based on Finance Ministry data put net budget revenue from oil levies at around $10 billion last month, dented by multi-billion-ruble payouts to support domestic fuel deliveries.

Volumes: flat crude, thinner products

Revenue rose while volumes barely moved. The IEA report said Russian crude exports "remained flat month-on-month at 5.33 million barrels per day," roughly 4% above the year-earlier level. Petroleum-product exports reached 1.49 million barrels per day, "the highest since June," though about a third below the year-earlier level.

That combination is the mechanism behind the revenue spike. Price did the work, not volume.

The refinery strike cycle

Ukrainian drone attacks in the first half of October hit Russian refinery runs, before easing later in the month as Kyiv paused strikes for two weeks. The lull coincided with calls for calm from US President Donald Trump, who was trying to bring down fuel prices before the midterm elections.

Ukraine has since resumed targeting some of Russia's key oil refineries, including the export-focused plant at Kirishi and the country's largest facility in Omsk. The renewed campaign has already hurt refinery runs and may push seaborne crude exports higher this month, unless Russia's crude-export terminals are affected.

What does this change for shippers, carriers and forwarders?

• A thinner Russian product book. Product exports of 1.49 million barrels per day sit about a third below a year earlier, so clean-fuel cargo availability out of Russian ports stays scarce even in the strongest revenue month since May.
• More Russian crude on the water. Lower refinery runs push barrels out as seaborne crude instead, and those cargoes sail east to China and India without touching the Strait of Hormuz.
• War risk stays concentrated in the Gulf. Near-daily tanker attacks in Hormuz and Houthi strikes on Saudi energy infrastructure loaded the premium onto Gulf voyages, not onto the Russian trades, which is exactly what widened Urals and ESPO's advantage over competing grades.
• Refinery outages feed straight into run rates. Any return of Omsk and Kirishi to normal would thin the seaborne crude lift again and hand more volume back to the product side.

The variable to watch

For forwarders booking Russian-origin cargoes, the near-term risk sits upstream of the vessel. Ukrainian strikes on export terminals, not only refineries, would cut the crude pipeline as well. Without that, higher seaborne exports and a thinner product book should carry into November, with Urals and ESPO holding near or above $100 for as long as Gulf tanker traffic stays under attack.