Record $426.6bn US import month meets a freight market hesitating

U.S. imports hit a record $426.6 billion in September, a figure that exposes how hard the AI data-center investment boom is pressing on physical supply chains — even as the trucking sector that would carry the freight is refusing to buy equipment.

That tension defines this week's picture. Demand signals point up at the macro level; procurement, capacity and hiring decisions point the other way. Both cannot be right indefinitely.

What is driving the record import number?

Computer and accessory purchases lifted the September import total to its record, according to Reuters reporting. Data-center construction is translating directly into containerized and airfreight volumes of servers, networking gear and associated hardware.

The cost side is moving too. Supplier delays worsened in the same month, and tariffs pointed to additional cost pressure ahead — a combination that suggests shippers front-running duties rather than a clean demand expansion.

Where are the strain points?

• Canada: Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.6 in October, with production and orders declining, supplier delays intensifying, and input costs rising at their fastest pace in more than four years — a tariff-driven squeeze, per Inside Logistics.
• U.S. services: The October services PMI eased to 54.5 while supplier delivery times lengthened, new orders cooled, and the prices-paid index stayed elevated on tariffs and fuel costs, Transport Topics/Bloomberg reported.
• Trucking capacity: Preliminary October Class 8 orders fell 36% year over year to 15,600 units — roughly half the 10-year monthly average, according to FreightWaves. Fleets cite emissions-rule uncertainty and operating costs.

A sub-16,000 order month matters beyond the OEMs. If demand holds while replacement cycles stall, the capacity math tightens — though with U.S. truckload rates still soft, that risk remains a caveat, not a forecast.

Can DHL absorb €1bn in extra fuel?

DHL reiterated its 2026 targets, expecting peak-season parcel demand to support fourth-quarter results even after roughly €1 billion in additional aviation fuel costs through September, Reuters reported. For parcel shippers, the message is that peak surcharges will not soften because of carrier margin pressure — if anything, the inverse.

Trimble offered the European counterpoint. The technology provider cut expected annual recurring revenue growth to about 10% as European freight volumes and spot pricing weakened, even while adoption of its AI-enabled procurement and quotation tools kept rising, FreightWaves reported. Weak European spot pricing and record U.S. imports are an awkward pairing for anyone building global freight budgets.

How are shippers responding?

Pragmatically, and with less staff. A Gartner survey found 47% of supply chains reduced headcount by an average 10.5% over two years, with entry-level roles absorbing most of the cuts as organizations integrated AI into workflows. The unspoken risk: the industry is thinning the very talent pipeline it will need when today's lean teams retire.

Tractor Supply is taking the operational route. The retailer is spreading parcel volume among multiple carriers so it can redirect bulky shipments when accessorial charges spike — network optionality as a hedge against last-mile pricing power during peak.

Two technology deployments extend the pattern. Calgary's YYC airport will deploy AI-enabled cameras on a dedicated cargo apron to track unloading, loading and fueling milestones, giving operators real-time visibility into freighter turnarounds. Lloyd's Register launched a resilience planning service that evaluates alternate ports, airports, roads and rail by capacity, cost, delay and risk, with response plans covering a disruption's first 90 days.

What ties it together?

Record import values, contracting manufacturing PMIs, half-normal truck orders and billion-euro fuel bills describe a market redistributing cost rather than growing it evenly. The shippers diversifying carriers and mapping alternate corridors are treating volatility as permanent. Whether fourth-quarter peak demand and the 2026 outlooks hold depends largely on how tariff policy and emissions rules resolve — and neither has resolved yet.