Online retail lifts UK Big Box take-up to 18.8m ft² in first nine months

UK Big Box industrial and logistics take-up reached 18.8 million ft² in the first three quarters of 2026, running just 5.5% behind the same period last year, according to new analysis from global real estate adviser Avison Young published this week.

The driver behind the resilience is measurable: online sales now account for almost 29% of UK retail spending, and the warehousing required to fulfil that spend keeps occupiers in the market even as they sign more slowly. Demand is split between retailers themselves and the third-party logistics operators serving them — and in the third quarter the balance tilted sharply toward the 3PLs.

A further 8.3 million ft² of space is currently under offer across the UK. If those deals complete in the fourth quarter, annual take-up in 2026 would surpass the 22.6 million ft² transacted across 2025.

Who is leasing, and where?

The Q3 numbers show a clear occupier hierarchy:

• Third-party logistics operators accounted for 53% of take-up during the quarter.
• Retailers represented a further 29%.
• The remaining share came from other occupier segments.

Geographically, the Midlands dominated the quarter. The West Midlands recorded 3.4 million ft² of take-up in Q3, and the East Midlands a further 1.8 million ft² — together representing 90% of all leasing activity during the period. That concentration underscores the region's role as the structural fulcrum of UK distribution networks, sitting within reach of most of the national population.

What are the brakes on the market?

The headline resilience comes with caveats, and Avison Young's own analysis is candid about them. David Willmer, principal and managing director, industrial and logistics at Avison Young, said: "Despite a more measured third quarter, occupier demand remains resilient and we continue to see a healthy pipeline of requirements across the market."

Willmer acknowledged the friction directly: businesses are taking longer to make decisions and complete transactions than in recent years. He attributed the caution to increased fuel, energy and transport costs, together with ongoing supply chain pressures and wider economic uncertainty — factors causing some occupiers to hesitate on expansion and relocation decisions.

"While this is extending deal timescales, the underlying drivers of demand remain firmly in place, and we expect activity to remain broadly in line with last year's levels by the end of 2026," Willmer said.

For shippers and 3PLs reading the numbers, the practical consequence is straightforward: leasing pipelines remain full, but conversion timelines have stretched. Occupiers planning network changes in 2027 should factor longer decision cycles — and continued Midlands scarcity for the largest units — into their schedules and cost assumptions.

What about the investment side?

Big Box investment volumes totalled approximately £400m across the quarter, falling broadly in line with the rolling five-year average — a signal, the report argues, of continued investor appetite for prime, well-located assets with strong occupational fundamentals.

Michael Kershaw, director, capital markets at Avison Young, said: "Against a backdrop of wider economic uncertainty, rising global and UK bond yields have put further pressure on the cost of debt, creating additional challenges for investors, developers, and occupiers."

Kershaw also flagged a nearer-term variable: with the Autumn Budget approaching, uncertainty around the potential impact of fiscal policy on business confidence and investment decisions is weighing on the pace of transactions. Developers and investors face a cost-of-debt squeeze at the same time their occupier customers are deliberating longer — a combination that slows speculative development even where demand evidence is strong.

"But the Big Box market continues to demonstrate resilience, underpinned by the expansion of online retail and the demand for warehousing and distribution infrastructure needed to support it," Kershaw said. "While the economic outlook may influence the pace of decision-making, these underlying structural drivers should continue to support demand for Big Box industrial space."

The bottom line

Strip out the caveats and the structural case is consistent across both halves of the report: online penetration near 29% of retail spend keeps generating warehouse demand, 3PLs are doing the bulk of the leasing, and the Midlands remains where that demand physically lands.

The uncertainty sits in timing rather than direction. A fourth-quarter close on the 8.3 million ft² currently under offer would push 2026 past 2025's 22.6 million ft² total; a slide into 2027 would merely defer the same volume. Bond yields, energy costs and the Autumn Budget govern the pace — not, on this evidence, the underlying trajectory of Big Box demand.