ONE quadruples quarterly profit to $1.3bn, doubles guidance to $2bn

Ocean Network Express more than quadrupled its second-quarter net profit to $1.318 billion and doubled its full-year earnings guidance to $2 billion. Not a bad quarter for a carrier that, one year earlier, booked $285 million.

Revenue at the Singapore-based line, co-owned by NYK, Mitsui O.S.K. and K Line, climbed roughly 41% to $6.27 billion from $4.45 billion. The July–September period marks Q2 of a fiscal year that ends in March 2027.

The numbers behind that jump are straightforward. ONE carried 3.396 million TEUs, up 6.3% year on year. Its average freight rate rose to $1,709 per TEU from $1,252 — a 36% increase that more than absorbed higher fuel, vessel and other operating costs.

Two upgrades in two quarters

The new $2 billion profit forecast replaces an earlier $900 million figure, itself an upgrade from an original $300 million set after Q1 results. ONE also lifted its revenue outlook from $19.4 billion to $21 billion. In other words, the company now expects to make nearly seven times what it thought it would earn back at the start of the fiscal year.

First-half totals underline how concentrated the rebound is. Revenue reached $10.812 billion for the six months, with net profit of $1.35 billion against $371 million a year earlier. Nearly all of that profit landed in the second quarter alone.

"The second quarter delivered a strong financial performance, contributing to a solid first half of FY2026," CEO Till Ole Barrelet said in the earnings announcement. "These results reflect our teams' success in growing cargo volumes and achieving higher utilization despite a challenging operating environment."

Where the demand came from

Trade lanes told a split story. Trans-Pacific volumes benefited from U.S. inventory replenishment and shipments of equipment for data centers and industrial applications — the same hyperscaler-driven cargo that has been lifting other forwarders' results. Latin American and intra-Asian services also recorded positive demand.

Asia–Europe was the laggard. Pricing pressure there built as available capacity increased, a reminder that the rate recovery is lane-specific rather than universal.

What does this change for shippers?

Not much comfort, at least near term. ONE expects seasonal demand to moderate and spot freight rates to ease in the second half. It does, however, anticipate rates holding above the levels assumed in its previous forecast, with a modest bump ahead of Chinese New Year.

The bigger variable is geography, not seasonality. ONE's revised forecast assumes current conditions in the Strait of Hormuz persist through fiscal year-end and Suez Canal transits recover only gradually. A fuller return of services to the Suez route would add effective capacity and could pressure rates down further — good for shippers' budgets, less so for the industry's freshly repaired earnings.

"Looking ahead, we will adapt our network in response to evolving conditions, with safety remaining our top priority," Barrelet said.

For the broader liner trade, ONE's quarter — at the world's 10th-largest ocean carrier — is a decent bellwether. If a mid-sized global operator can quadruple profit on rate recovery and data-center cargo, the majors' numbers later this reporting season should be worth watching. The caveat: much depends on Hormuz, Suez, and how quickly easing spot rates ease.