LA/LB Strike Deadline Extended to November 20 as Rates Hold Near Peak

ILWU Local 26, the watchmen's union at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, has pushed its strike deadline back to November 20, buying terminal operators and negotiators ten extra days to avert a walkout at the largest US container gateway. The extension lands at an awkward moment: a serious rail backlog is already slowing inland distribution for importers, and container rates remain near peak levels even as demand cools.

What do the rate indexes show?

Ocean spot prices eased across major lanes last week, according to the Freightos Baltic Index. Asia–US West Coast rates (FBX01) fell 1% to $8,200/FEU, while Asia–US East Coast rates (FBX03) slipped 2% to $9,700/FEU. Asia–Northern Europe dropped 5% to $3,400/FEU, and Asia–Mediterranean rates declined 1% to $4,300/FEU.

Air cargo moved the opposite way on the Freightos Air Index:

• China–North America: up 3% to above $8.00/kg
• China–Northern Europe: up 11% to $4.87/kg
• Northern Europe–North America: up 9% week on week, and up 33% over the past month to $2.90/kg

Why did carriers' GRIs fail?

Significant carrier general rate increases failed to materialize on transpacific lanes last week, and slowing demand appears to be one factor. Even so, prices around $8,200/FEU to the West Coast and $9,700/FEU to the East Coast sit at roughly peak-season levels — roughly 50% above normal pre-pandemic benchmarks would be an understatement of how elevated the market remains.

Carriers likewise abandoned their November 1 GRI hopes on Asia–Europe. Northern Europe rates, at $3,400/FEU, are still up 50% year on year, and Mediterranean prices at $4,300/FEU are up 88% versus last year.

What did the midterms change for trade?

Republicans lost control of both houses of Congress in last week's US midterm elections, injecting fresh uncertainty into trade policy. Voter frustration with inflation — including tariff- and energy-driven price pressure — could push the White House to avoid new tariffs and to deescalate the war in Iran in hopes of lowering oil prices.

The counterargument: with legislation harder to pass, President Trump may lean harder into foreign and trade policy, areas where Congress has less leverage. In recent months the administration has trended toward deescalation with China, and both sides formally extended the pause on reciprocal port call fees to January 10, matching the September interim trade agreement. Presidents Trump and Xi are scheduled to meet in China next week.

How long can the import rally last?

This year's trade war whiplash produced an unusually early and unusually long transpacific peak season that kept US import volumes elevated since May. The National Retail Federation's latest report shows arrivals peaked in September at 2.37 million TEU — just below record levels — after climbing steadily from May.

October volumes are estimated to have eased 5%, with November projected down 14% from the September high. Still, the NRF expects full-year totals to finish 2.2% above 2025, an upgrade from earlier forecasts of flat or modest growth. Frontloading ahead of expected July tariff increases started the surge; stable duties after July, IEEPA refund cash following the Supreme Court's February invalidation of the tariff mechanism, and resilient consumer spending kept it running.

Is the air freight surge sustainable?

China–US air rates above $8.00/kg have already matched last year's high, which was not reached until mid-December 2025. China–Europe rates are up 23% year on year. Elevated jet fuel prices have raised the rate floor, while data center hardware demand on Far East–North America lanes has kept pressure on capacity and spot prices.

Transatlantic rates have climbed 33% in a month to $2.90/kg as winter schedule cuts, possible freighter shifts to higher-volume lanes, and peak season demand combine. Some observers now speculate that Democratic control of Congress could bring tighter AI regulation, slowing data center hardware volumes into the US — and with them, a key pillar of air freight demand growth.

With the ILWU Local 26 deadline now November 20 and the US-China port fee truce expiring January 10, shippers face a compressed window in which labor risk, tariff policy and peak-season air rates could all move at once.