Asia-US Air Rates Hit $7.76/kg, Closing In on Last Year's Peak

China–North America air cargo rates climbed 9% last week to $7.76/kg — a 2026 high, up 40% year on year and closing fast on the $8.00/kg peak hit in early December 2025, according to the Freightos Air Index.

Peak season demand is doing the pushing. And the transpacific isn't done yet, even as ocean volumes slide toward the slow season.

How are ocean rates moving?

The Freightos Baltic Index told a split story last week:

• Asia–US West Coast (FBX01): level
• Asia–US East Coast (FBX03): down 6%, to roughly $9,900/FEU — still $200/FEU higher than two weeks ago
• Asia–North Europe (FBX11): up 1%, to about $3,595/FEU
• Asia–Mediterranean (FBX13): up 3%, to $4,375/FEU

West Coast prices have held the $8,300/FEU range since September. East Coast rates cooled after the previous week's bump.

What's propping up Asia–Europe rates?

Carriers have pushed rates up 10% to North Europe and 23% to the Mediterranean over the past month — despite more container vessels returning to Red Sea routings on Asia–Europe services and expectations of slumping post-peak demand.

The mechanism looks like congestion. North European hubs are clogged, some backlogs linger in the Far East, and a recent one-day port worker union strike across 113 ports in Europe and other regions may have added to the pile-up.

The gains come off a low base, though. From July to September, prices on these lanes fell $2,000–$3,000/FEU, landing back near the mid-May pre-peak baseline.

Will the November GRIs stick?

Carriers filed GRIs of $1,000–$1,500/FEU for Asia–Europe to start the month, with more increases planned for mid-November. Transpacific lanes saw GRIs of $2,000–$3,000/FEU.

Daily rates so far this week have stayed flat. Some forwarders are skeptical market conditions will support further increases — especially on the transpacific, where the trade is finally entering slow season.

What does this change for shippers? On the transpacific, probably not much downside. Prices sit about $5,500/FEU above pre-peak levels, and with Lunar New Year demand likely to pick up relatively soon, rates may never fall back near that baseline before climbing again.

Can the LA/Long Beach strike threat lift rates?

One wildcard remains: the ILWU Local 26 watchmen union at LA/Long Beach. The unit has worked under an expired contract since mid-2025, and last week voted to authorize a strike as early as November 1.

Over the weekend, the union agreed to extend the current contract until 5pm PT on November 4 to allow more negotiation time. Federal mediators are now involved.

The union is small, but its members provide required security services at many terminals — so a walkout could have an outsized impact on port operations, and could help prop up rates even as demand cools.

What about the other air lanes?

• China–North Europe: up 1% week on week, roughly flat at $4.39/kg — 11% higher year on year, but well short of the roughly $5.25/kg highs seen earlier this year, as the market adjusts to falling e-commerce volumes on the lane
• North Europe–North America: up 12%

The air story is concentrated on the transpacific. Ocean watchers, meanwhile, will learn in the coming days whether carriers follow through on their GRIs — and whether the market lets them.