Iran's oil exports collapse to 15,806 bpd as US blockade bites

Iran's oil exports fell to just 15,806 barrels per day in October, a single LPG shipment on a small tanker, down from 50,789 bpd in September, as the US naval blockade strangled the flow, according to an exclusive preview of United Against Nuclear Iran's (UANI) October Tanker Tracker shared with Seatrade Maritime News.

Shipments to Iran's key buyer, China, dried up entirely. Exports to Chinese ports hit zero in both September and October, the report showed.

"Throughout October 2026, the strict enforcement of the US naval blockade continued to severely restrict Iranian oil exports, maintaining intense economic pressure on the regime," the report said.

How tight is the squeeze?

Very. UANI counts an export only when a tanker crosses the US blockade line out of the Arabian Sea, and since Washington reintroduced the blockade on 14 July the tracker has logged just 11 small LPG tankers making it through. Iran continues to load crude onto tankers, but those cargoes aren't moving past the cordon.

"October demonstrated that the US blockade has been highly effective in bringing Iranian crude oil exports to a virtual standstill. This strikes at a critical source of revenue for the Iranian regime and the IRGC, which has relied heavily on oil sales to China to generate funds," said Charlie Brown, UANI Senior Advisor and co-author of the report.

What happened to Malaysia's floating stockpile?

The buffer is gone. Enormous floating reserves of Iranian crude previously held aboard tankers off Malaysia's Eastern Outer Port Limits (EOPL) have essentially disappeared, with the oil largely delivered to China.

Iran restocked that offshore inventory during the blockade's hiatus between 17 June and 14 July. In that window, some 60 tankers loaded with Iranian oil and petrochemicals departed the Gulf of Oman, carrying more than 70 million barrels. Of those, 26 were Iranian tankers that conducted ship-to-ship transfers at the Malaysian EOPL.

"At the same time, the enormous floating reserves of Iranian crude previously held aboard tankers off Malaysia's Eastern Outer Port Limits have essentially disappeared, with that oil now largely delivered to China. Iran has effectively run down the offshore inventory that provided a buffer against the disruption of its exports," Brown said.

The maths is stark. Floating storage at the EOPL, 70 km off Malaysia, has been nearly depleted, leaving an estimated 0–5 million barrels of Iranian cargo in the anchorage. UANI observed just one STS transfer of Iranian LPG there during the whole of October.

Attacks up — but so are Hormuz transits

Starved of oil revenue, Iran has responded with force. October was the worst month for Iranian attacks on commercial shipping since the conflict began, the report said. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) recorded 35 separate attacks on commercial shipping across October, with more unconfirmed incidents on top.

Yet traffic through the Strait of Hormuz did not buckle. Transits actually rose in October, with 956 recorded over the month, an average of 30.8 per day. US naval forces directly protected and facilitated many of those movements.

For shipowners and operators on Gulf routes, that combination — rising violence alongside maintained throughput — defines the current risk picture. The lane is open, but under fire.

What comes next?

Two questions now dominate: Washington's political will to sustain the blockade, and its response to Iran's escalation.

"We are now entering a waiting game. Can Washington sustain the blockade long enough to impose lasting economic pressure on Tehran? And, equally importantly, how will the United States respond to Iran's escalating attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz?" Brown said.

"The effectiveness of the blockade is becoming increasingly clear. What remains uncertain is the political will to maintain it and the resolve to deter further attacks on international shipping."