IATA has released its Air Cargo Market Analysis for January 2026, the trade body's monthly read on global air freight demand, capacity and yields.

The report is the sector's benchmark dataset. Airlines, forwarders and shippers use it to track how fast cargo traffic is growing, where capacity is tight, and what yields are doing across regions. Each edition splits demand and capacity by international and domestic markets, by region, and by month-on-month and year-on-year change.

What does this report change for shippers and forwarders?

In practice, the January edition matters more than most. It sets the baseline for the year, captures the post-peak-season wind-down after December's cargo surge, and shows whether capacity added over the winter schedules has loosened the market or left it tight.

For shippers, the key numbers to watch are straightforward: international cargo tonne-kilometres, available cargo capacity, and the load factor. If demand growth outpaces capacity growth, spot rates stay firm and contract negotiations tilt toward carriers. If capacity runs ahead, the leverage shifts back to buyers.

For forwarders, the regional breakdown drives allocation strategy. Strong Asia-Pacific or transpacific numbers usually signal tighter belly and freighter space out of the major gateways, while soft European or North American figures open room to renegotiate blockspace agreements.

Why the timing matters

January is also the first month in which the effects of the prior year's fleet decisions show up in the data. Freighter conversions delivered late in the previous year, passenger widebody deployments on cargo-heavy lanes, and any new freighter services all land in the January capacity figures.

IATA's monthly series also feeds into the trade body's wider outlook work. Its analysts use the rolling data to track whether the cargo cycle is cooling, holding, or accelerating — a question with direct consequences for airline belly revenue, freighter operator utilisation, and charter pricing through the rest of the first quarter.

The January 2026 edition is available now through IATA's publications channel. Readers tracking the year's trajectory will next look to the February data, due in March, to confirm whether the post-peak pattern visible this month holds or breaks.