By Amara Osei

IATA's Air Cargo Market Analysis for February 2026 dropped this week, handing freight managers their monthly snapshot of global air freight demand, capacity and pricing.

The Geneva-based International Air Transport Association publishes the series monthly, drawing on carrier data to track cargo tonne-kilometres (CTK), available tonne-kilometres (ASK), load factors, yields and regional splits. It is one of the few standardised benchmarks for the belly-and-freighter market that shippers, forwarders and charter desks all read on the same day.

What's actually inside

IATA splits the data by six regions — Africa, Asia Pacific, Europe, Latin America, Middle East and North America — and reports world yields in USD per cargo tonne-kilometre. The headline is global CTK growth versus ASK growth, with load factor and yield as the two numbers freight negotiators care about most.

Analysts at Xeneta, the major integrators and the consulting desks parse the tables within hours of release. Time-series dashboards built off the IATA series are how most carriers benchmark their own performance against the world average.

Why February matters

February sits at an awkward calendar spot for cargo. Lunar New Year factory shutdowns across Greater China pulled industrial output and export tonnage off the road for at least seven days, depending on province. That historically knocks Asia-origin CTK lower year-on-year in the report's first section.

Africa's peak horticulture shipments into Europe — Kenyan and Ethiopian flowers, vegetables out of Egypt — counterbalance with a Valentine's surge on lanes from Nairobi and Addis to Amsterdam. Anyone reading the regional cuts should know which way to weight the swings.

What does the report change for shippers?

It tells them whether the soft market that defined late 2025 has rolled into a deeper trough or stabilised. Belly capacity returning as carriers rebuild summer schedules also tends to drag yields lower on long-haul lanes.

For forwarders, the regional cuts matter more than the headline. North America–Europe and intra-Asia numbers influence pricing on express and e-commerce lanes, which currently run hotter than general cargo. A slide in load factor on long-haul lanes hints that freighter operators may park capacity again rather than chase volume.

One quirk worth noting: IATA revised its 2024 demand baseline earlier this year, which means year-on-year comparisons in the February release run against slightly restated 2024 numbers rather than the original print. Anyone building time-series dashboards should check the methodology note before quoting the figures.

What to watch next

The bigger question for the rest of Q1 is whether the February demand signal lines up with the freighters' weekly tonnage figures. If CTK contracts while ASK expands, expect yield pressure to persist into the summer peak. If demand holds, carriers will hold the line on rates through the May–June belly rebuild.

Either way, freight contracts up for renewal in Q2 will price off the February print more than any glossy quarterly forecast. Forwarders who haven't pulled the data yet are missing the days.