Hormuz Traffic Still 65% Below Pre-War as Gulf Oil Exports Rebound

Vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains roughly 65% below pre-conflict levels even as Gulf oil exports climb back toward their pre-war mark, according to reports released Friday by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO).

The IEA now expects global oil supplies to exceed demand by 1.7 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, reversing its earlier forecast of a deficit. Persian Gulf producers are restoring disrupted exports nearly nine months after the conflict began. Gulf oil exports, excluding Oman, reached 18.4 million barrels per day in October, just 26% below pre-war levels.

Crude shipments have driven most of that recovery, hitting 15 million barrels per day — about 82% of pre-war volumes. For tanker owners and the refiners they serve, the numbers signal a market rebalancing faster than the shipping lanes that carry it.

How disrupted is Hormuz traffic?

UKMTO's latest weekly assessment counted 139 outbound and 169 inbound transits through the strait. The figures combine AIS-tracked vessel movements with U.S.-reported facilitated transits, including ships sailing without broadcasting AIS signals. UKMTO cautioned that it could not independently verify the U.S. figures.

The security picture remains dangerous. UKMTO documented eight maritime security incidents during the latest reporting period, seven of them tanker attacks. Five incidents occurred in the Strait of Hormuz, two in the Arabian Gulf and one in the Gulf of Oman.

Of the affected vessels, three continued their voyages and three required assistance. The outcomes of two remained unknown, and none was reported sunk.

Routing patterns are shifting under fire. UKMTO noted that while most AIS-broadcasting vessels still use the Iranian route, more ships now take the southern passage — and most reported projectile strikes since July 6 have occurred along that southern corridor.

What does the recovery mean for rates and prices?

The export rebound is easing pressure on global balances. Observed oil inventories rose by 52 million barrels in October, according to the IEA, while oil volumes on the water jumped by 86 million barrels to their highest level since January.

For tanker operators, conditions remain difficult nonetheless. Freight rates for crude shipments from the Middle East to Asia stay near record levels, the IEA said, even as rates for Aframax and Suezmax tankers have eased. Charterers on the Gulf–Asia lane continue to pay a security premium that the crude market itself no longer fully reflects.

The recovery is also uneven by product. Gulf exports of refined products and liquefied petroleum gas remain at roughly half their pre-war levels, feeding persistent shortages. Diesel is particularly tight: European prices still hover near $180 per barrel, roughly 77% above pre-war levels.

IEA member countries plan to release another 71 million barrels of emergency stocks by the end of February to ease the squeeze, including 15 million barrels of diesel.

Crude prices tell the demand side of the story. North Sea Dated crude has fallen from an October peak of $136 per barrel to around $93, though prices remain well above pre-war levels.

Can the recovery hold?

The IEA's October export figures and UKMTO's November vessel counts measure different periods and different activity, but together they point to one conclusion: the oil market is recovering faster than normal shipping conditions. Gulf producers have restored substantial crude volumes while commercial shipping still operates under significant security constraints.

The gap between the two defines the current risk. With tanker attacks continuing, freight rates elevated and Hormuz transits still far below normal, the recovery remains vulnerable to renewed disruption at one of the world's most important maritime chokepoints.