Shipping and insurance costs for crude and refined products have blown past one-third of the value of the cargo itself, OPEC+ ministers warned after meeting in Riyadh on 12 October 2026. That figure, unprecedented for the tanker trade, anchors a joint statement that puts freight economics at the centre of global oil policy.

The ministers from OPEC and non-OPEC members of the Declaration of Cooperation said disruption to international maritime routes was delaying shipments and feeding global inflation. Elevated costs are being passed through the oil supply chain, increasing the financial burden on both producing and consuming countries, they said, and weighing on global economic growth. The ministers stressed the importance of safeguarding maritime routes to keep energy flowing uninterrupted.

The warning lands amid renewed attacks on commercial shipping and energy infrastructure in the Middle East, concentrated around the Strait of Hormuz — the chokepoint for roughly a fifth of global oil supply.

What do the numbers show?

The International Energy Agency's October Oil Market Report, published 14 October, quantifies the damage and the partial recovery:

• Gulf crude exports hit 13.9 million barrels per day (mb/d) in September, up 4.4 mb/d and above 75% of pre-war levels
• Hormuz flows rose, helped by ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman
• Middle East refined product shipments reached just 1.9 mb/d in September, against 4.7 mb/d pre-war
• Global diesel and gasoil availability fell 1.7 mb/d year-on-year in Q3 2026, squeezed by Middle East disruption plus lower supply from Russia and some Asian countries

The IEA warned that the escalation in attacks on tankers and regional energy infrastructure threatens to derail the recovery in Middle East oil exports. Record tanker freight rates have raised crude delivery costs and eroded refinery margins, the agency said.

Who pays the freight bill?

For refiners, the arithmetic is brutal. Freight and insurance eating more than a third of cargo value means landed crude costs stay elevated even when benchmark prices soften, compressing margins the IEA has already flagged as eroded. Refineries dependent on Gulf crude face a choice: absorb the cost or pass it into products.

For consumers, the pass-through is already working through diesel. The 1.7 mb/d drop in gasoil availability has put diesel markets under extreme pressure, the IEA said — a direct hit to hauliers, agriculture and industry in importing countries.

For shipowners and tanker operators, the flip side is record earnings. Risk premiums on Hormuz transits, plus demand for ship-to-ship transfer work in the Gulf of Oman, are keeping spot rates at historic highs.

For producing states, the ministers' statement amounts to an admission that chokepoint risk, not barrels, is now the binding constraint on export revenue. The 13.9 mb/d September recovery remains more than 25% short of pre-war volumes.

How long does the squeeze last?

Longer than demand might suggest. Despite softer demand, the IEA forecasts oil market balances to remain in deficit through end-2026, with constrained middle distillate supplies likely to persist well into 2027. That points to elevated tanker rates and tight diesel margins carrying into at least the first half of next year, absent a de-escalation around Hormuz.