Global airfreight rates rise 26% as Asia-Pacific leads

By James Calloway

Global airfreight rates climbed between 4% and 4.7% over the past fortnight and stood 26% above the same period in 2025, according to the TAC-compiled Baltic Air Freight Index and WorldACD.

Available capacity rose 2% week on week in the 12-18 October WorldACD data, alongside a 2% increase in chargeable weight. Carriers expanded freighter operations after two consecutive weeks of reductions, giving shippers more space while fuel costs and disruption pushed prices higher.

TAC said the index had already surpassed the highs recorded during the previous two peak seasons, covering the run-ups to Thanksgiving and Christmas. IATA said jet fuel prices had “more than doubled year on year,” rising 113%, adding to the upward pressure on airfreight rates.

Conflicts in Europe and the Middle East added disruption to the cost equation. TAC said fuel increases and conflict-related disruption together created a floor for airfreight rates, and carriers were not prepared to fall below that floor in a rush for volumes.

For shippers, that combination means higher base costs and a less predictable operating environment. For carriers, it supports pricing discipline. For forwarders, it raises the cost of securing space on affected routes without a guarantee that demand will absorb every unit of added capacity.

Underlying cargo demand is moving in the other direction. Global airfreight volumes are falling as the market approaches its traditional end-of-summer lull, even as the industry enters its busiest period of the year. That split matters for pricing: fuel and disruption can lift rates quickly, but sustained increases still depend on demand filling the capacity carriers add.

Which trade lanes are driving the gains?

Weekly volume performance points to Asia-Pacific rather than a uniform global recovery. WorldACD reported:

• Asia-Pacific exports to the US: up 10% week on week.
• Asia-Pacific Europe-bound volumes: up 13% week on week.
• Hong Kong-US volumes: up 27% week on week.
• Mainland China-US volumes: up 18% week on week.

The year-on-year numbers are stronger still on the Asia-Pacific-US lane. Volumes were 14% higher than a year earlier, while rates on the trade climbed 41% year on year and 6% week on week, according to WorldACD.

Those figures give shippers on that lane the clearest near-term exposure to rising airfreight costs. They also give carriers an incentive to keep capacity tight as the year-end peak approaches.

Why is Asia-Europe lagging?

Global rates were 30% above their 2025 level, according to the indices, but Asia-Europe rates managed only a 1% week-on-week increase. Asia-Pacific-Europe volumes were 16% below the same period last year, despite a weekly recovery following China’s Golden Week holiday.

WorldACD linked some of that weakness to EU measures designed to curb low-value ecommerce imports. It also said the divergence “suggests that the current rate environment is not being driven by a uniform increase in global demand.”

That leaves freight buyers facing sharply different rate conditions by lane, with stronger pricing on Asia-Pacific-US and weaker momentum on Asia-Europe. Forwarders must distinguish route-specific capacity constraints from broader demand weakness rather than treat the global increase as uniform.

What should forwarders watch?

Carriers and forwarders are preparing for the traditional year-end peak. The immediate commercial question is whether recent increases reflect stronger underlying demand or tighter capacity on particular routes, as the 2% capacity increase and divergent trade-lane volumes suggest.

The 41% year-on-year rate increase on Asia-Pacific-US traffic shows how quickly higher market pricing can reach shippers. Forwarders will need to separate underlying demand from fuel-driven and disruption-related pricing before committing capacity. Additional freighter capacity could test whether the current rate floor holds.