Expeditors Air Tonnage Up 13% as AI Cargo Reshapes Airfreight Economics

Expeditors moved record third-quarter airfreight tonnage, up roughly 13% year on year, and hyperscaler demand was a significant driver of that growth. Group revenue climbed 42% to $4.1bn, while net earnings rose 55% to $345m — numbers that put the AI infrastructure build-out at the centre of the airfreight cycle.

The Seattle-based forwarder said the demand extended beyond finished servers into shipments from Tier 1 and Tier 2 suppliers supporting AI infrastructure — the wider manufacturing supply chain, in other words, not just the end product. "Air capacity remains constrained by limited fleet expansion and new aircraft delivery delays," it said, adding that demand continued to outpace available capacity, keeping rates elevated.

What does that mean for shippers booking today? The TAC Index's global Baltic Air Freight Index, updated today, slipped 1.1% in the week to 2 November but still sat 22.8% above a year earlier. Conditions diverge by tradelane: China–US rates kept rising strongly, rates from Taiwan also increased, and rates from Vietnam eased slightly.

Who's cashing in?

Airports, carriers and handlers all want a piece of it. At TIACA's Air Cargo Forum in Miami last week, Changi Airport said much of its cargo growth this year came from semiconductors and AI-related infrastructure. Throughput hit approximately 1.66m tonnes in the first nine months, up 8.5% year on year.

But winning that business takes more than flight connections, according to Jaisey Yip, Changi's cargo business division VP. "Not only are the shipments high-value, they are time-critical, and also shock- and vibration-sensitive," she said. Production equipment can also be outsized and require main-deck freighter capacity.

Changi's partner SATS has trialled and introduced a suspension-enabled pallet dolly to cut shock, vibration and tilt during airside transfers — including the short hop between warehouse and aircraft. Ms Yip said Changi was positioning itself "not only to facilitate our key exports, but also to facilitate hi-tech trades around the region to the rest of the world".

Emirates SkyCargo went further yesterday, launching AI Tech, a dedicated product covering server racks, semiconductors, GPUs, capital equipment and other AI hardware. It bundles priority loading, standardised handling procedures and shipment monitoring through the carrier's Dubai command centre. Oversized and heavy shipments get expert project cargo support; highly specialised manufacturing equipment requires advance assessments of station capabilities.

"In July alone, we transported more than 700 tonnes of AI infrastructure across our global network, and demand has continued to grow," said divisional SVP Badr Abbas. Emirates noted that tall, dense server racks often weigh more than 3.5 tonnes — which makes main-deck capacity critical alongside the belly network.

A two-stage supply chain

The AI build-out generates multiple airfreight movements before equipment reaches its final installation. Martin Drew of Atlas Air described a two-stage flow: components flown from Asian manufacturing centres to assembly locations, then finished racks distributed worldwide.

"You've got semiconductors, chips, motherboards, and GPUs coming predominantly out of Asia into places such as Guadalajara in Mexico, where factories assemble these server racks. Then the server racks are sent all over the world," he told The Loadstar.

The destination market reaches beyond the US. Avianca Cargo CEO Diogo Elias said the airline moves server racks from Miami into South American markets including Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay and Chile. The equipment's height — typically around 90 inches (228.6cm) — makes freighter main decks important for those routes.

What happens when the racks come due?

The near-term demand is real, but airlines are already probing the next phase. Mr Drew pointed to rapid technological development supporting recurring replacement business: "The technology is evolving so quickly. We hear anything from 18 months to three years, when that server rack becomes effectively obsolete and needs to be replaced."

LATAM Cargo group CEO Andrés Bianchi, whose airline also carries AI-related cargo, went further. "What happens when the data centre is built, and what you're going to replace is not the rack itself, but the processor? Are you going to send racks again?" he asked.

That question matters for capacity planning. Continued AI spending will not necessarily reproduce today's mix of bulky racks, components and manufacturing equipment. "This is a big opportunity today," said Mr Bianchi. "But you've got to think about what is the opportunity for the future, and how that can translate into other areas of the business."

With capacity still constrained by delivery delays and the Baltic index holding 22.8% above last year, carriers and forwarders banking on rack-shaped demand may find the replacement cycle arrives in a far smaller box.