Xeneta projects global air cargo demand will grow roughly 4% in 2026, double the expected rate of capacity expansion and slightly above the analyst's forecast issued at the close of 2025.

The revised outlook, reported by the Journal of Commerce on Oct. 1, points to a firm fourth quarter on the trans-Pacific, with Asia–North America volumes leading a recovery from a softer summer and signaling a robust peak season for carriers and forwarders.

What's pulling the trans-Pacific higher?

AI and data center hardware has emerged as the standout demand driver on the Asia–North America trade lane. Outbound shipments from the region recovered quickly from the mid-year lull, with tonnage holding up despite soaring fuel surcharges and elevated spot rates, according to JOC's reporting.

"Global air cargo demand is expected to remain firm through the fourth quarter, led by huge volumes of AI and data center equipment on the trans-Pacific that is tightening capacity and pointing to a solid peak season," senior editor Greg Knowler wrote.

The pattern marks a reversal from earlier in the year, when shippers and forwarders braced for a soft peak. Demand growth has instead shrugged off higher costs.

Why does the demand-capacity gap matter?

Xeneta's 4% demand projection runs at twice its capacity-growth estimate. That gap leaves little buffer for shippers of traditional air freight — pharmaceuticals, perishables, electronics, and high-value e-commerce — as AI-related cargo absorbs a growing share of belly-hold and freighter space on trans-Pacific services.

The supply squeeze plays out in two ways:

• Long-term contract rates on the lane reset higher, protecting shippers with locked-in capacity
• Spot buyers face an accelerating rate environment, with carriers allocating tonnage to the highest bidder

Forwarders with diversified Asia origin portfolios and multi-carrier contracts stand to manage the squeeze better than those reliant on single-lane spot exposure.

What does the fuel-cost overlay change?

Soaring jet fuel prices add a second layer of pressure on already-tight capacity. Carriers pass higher costs through fuel surcharges, but the rebound in tonnage suggests demand is inelastic at current levels — buyers absorb the surcharge rather than switch to ocean or postpone orders.

That dynamic mirrors a familiar ocean-freight pattern, but at altitude: tight capacity meets price-insensitive demand, and carriers capture the spread. For shippers, the calculation is which lanes can absorb a rate hike and which force a mode switch.

How are operators responding?

Airlines have begun redeploying freighter capacity toward the trans-Pacific to capture the AI-driven surge, with passenger belly-hold supply effectively maxed out on many Asia–North America routes.

The squeeze is not new, but the catalyst is: data center buildouts are pulling tonnage that historically went to consumer electronics and semiconductors during peak season.

For integrators and general-cargo forwarders, the residual business — pharma cold-chain, automotive spares, high-value apparel — comes at a premium, with carriers prioritizing revenue per kilogram over volume.

Will the AI cargo tailwind hold into 2027?

Xeneta's upgrade is incremental, not euphoric. The 4% figure sits only marginally above the analyst's end-2025 forecast, leaving room for a demand plateau if hyperscaler capital expenditure cools or broader trade sentiment softens.

The demand-capacity gap also hinges on the timing of new widebody freighters entering service and the pace of belly-hold restoration as long-haul passenger networks mature.

For now, shippers with technology-related flows from Asia should expect capacity rationing rather than rate relief through year-end, and the imbalance is likely to persist into the first quarter of 2027, with carriers retaining pricing leverage into contract renewals.