Drewry WCI Hits 15-Week High as Asia-Europe Indexes Split

Drewry's World Container Index rose 2% to $4,585 per 40-foot container on 22 October, its highest level in 15 weeks and a second consecutive weekly increase. The Freightos Baltic Index climbed faster, up 5% to $3,560 from roughly $3,397 a week earlier. But the Chinese composite indexes told a different story: the CCFI fell 2.41% to 1,876.27 points from 1,922.64, the sharpest move among the three Chinese benchmarks assessed on 23 October.

The split matters for shippers. Global benchmarks are firming, yet Chinese indexes show limited momentum, and the divergence is sharpest on Asia-Europe.

What did the Chinese indexes show?

The SCFI edged up 0.05% to 3,681.34 points, from 3,679.58 in the previous reading. Essentially flat. The Ningbo NCFI gained about 0.50% to 2,509.30 points, against 2,496.79 previously. Both stayed positive, but their gains were far smaller than the FBX and WCI advances.

The CCFI was the outlier. Its near-2.41% drop marked the most pronounced movement among the Chinese composites, undercutting the notion of a broad-based recovery.

Where is Asia-Europe heading?

The clearest divergence sits on Asia-Europe. Drewry reported Shanghai-Rotterdam up 3% to $3,632 and Shanghai-Genoa up 5% to $4,152, extending the previous week's recovery. The NYFI Asia-North Europe reading moved the other way: down 2.53% to 3,039.67 from 3,118.71, on top of a 7.08% decline the week before.

The gap isn't a contradiction. NYFI tracks reported transactions on containers that have actually shipped, while Drewry's WCI provides assessed spot rate benchmarks. Different methodologies and reporting periods mean the two can diverge in the short term even on related lanes.

Capacity management is now front and center. Drewry said carriers have announced eight blank sailings on Asia-Europe services for the coming week, up from two in the current week, linking the cancellations to efforts to manage capacity and support rates. The consultancy expects a slight rate increase on Asia-Europe.

How stable is the Transpacific?

Broadly stable, with modest improvement on the West Coast. NYFI's Asia-US West Coast reading rose 1.39% to 7,579.09 from 7,475.40. Asia-US East Coast was virtually unchanged, slipping 0.02% to 9,936.89 from 9,938.75.

Drewry's lane-level data tracked the same direction. Shanghai-Los Angeles gained 2% to $8,007 per feu, while Shanghai-New York added 1% to $10,166. Announced Transpacific blank sailings fell from six to two. Drewry expects rates on these routes to remain broadly stable.

Why did Transatlantic rates slide?

The sharpest moves of the week came on the Transatlantic, and they were downward. NYFI westbound rates dropped 7.30% to 2,882.09 from 3,109.16, partially reversing a 14.77% surge the previous week. Eastbound rates fell harder still: down 19.28% to 946.64 from 1,172.79, after an 8.53% decrease in the prior assessment.

Two double-digit-trending corrections in opposite directions on the same corridor underline how volatile individual markets remain, whatever the global benchmarks say.

What happens next?

The recovery in global benchmarks has continued for a second week, but it is not uniform. The CCFI's decline and the marginal SCFI and NCFI gains show Chinese freight measures are not sharing equally in the uplift. Drewry's expectation of tighter Asia-Europe capacity — with blank sailings quadrupling week on week — points to firmer rates on that corridor, while the Transpacific looks set to hold broadly steady, according to the consultancy's forecast. The next weekly assessments will show whether the global benchmarks' gains can be sustained and whether the conflicting Asia-Europe readings begin to converge.