Double Sailings Hit Record 19% on Asia–Med as Bunched Vessels Hit Schedules

Double sailings have reached 19% of departures on Asia–Mediterranean services for October and November, according to Sea-Intelligence — the highest level on record, surpassing even the pandemic-era bunching of 2021.

The figure lands at 17% on Asia–North Europe routes and 18% on Asia–US East Coast services. Together the numbers expose a paradox at the heart of the current market: more container capacity is sailing on the major East–West trades than ever, yet schedule reliability is deteriorating rather than improving.

What is driving the record double sailings?

Container services normally run on a weekly cadence, with one vessel leaving each origin per week. When congestion delays a ship, its departure slips into the following week and sails alongside the next scheduled vessel — a double sailing.

The mechanics matter commercially. A double sailing temporarily inflates capacity in a given week, but it is not new capacity. Most of it is vessels and cargo that should have departed earlier.

Successive typhoons and prolonged congestion at major Asian ports caused extensive vessel bunching in the third quarter, pushing delayed ships into subsequent sailing windows and disrupting traditional seasonal capacity adjustments. The fallout will keep cargo planning uncertain for shippers moving freight through November and December.

Can carriers hold up falling rates?

The pressure on rates is already visible. Drewry's World Container Index declined 1% in the week ending 5 November, reflecting softer conditions across the major East–West trades as congestion at Chinese ports eases and effective vessel capacity rises.

Carriers are pushing for higher freight rates in November, particularly on Asia–Europe services, ahead of annual contract negotiations. Their room for manoeuvre looks limited.

Between 9 November and 14 December, carriers have announced 46 blank sailings across the principal East–West trades — roughly 6% of planned departures. Asia–North Europe and Mediterranean services account for half of those cancellations.

With 94% of scheduled sailings expected to operate, the market remains relatively well supplied. But uneven vessel arrivals and continuing schedule adjustments mean capacity can vary sharply between individual services and departure dates. For shippers, the question is not how many vessels leave port, but whether cargo moves on the originally scheduled transit and delivery plan.

Why does the Suez return add congestion risk?

The shift back to the Suez Canal is gathering pace after almost two years of diversions around the Cape of Good Hope. Around 60% of Asia–Europe container capacity now transits Suez, with the transition most advanced on Asia–Mediterranean services.

Shorter voyages should ultimately improve transit times and network efficiency. The short-term risk is convergence: vessels returning through Suez could arrive at Northern European ports alongside ships still completing longer Cape routings.

That concentration threatens arrival peaks at Rotterdam, Antwerp-Bruges, Hamburg and other major gateways. Ports could face simultaneous demand for berths, cranes, terminal storage, feeder connections and inland transport — producing congestion, longer container dwell times and disrupted onward delivery schedules even as advertised ocean transit times improve.

The industry's current lesson is blunt: more capacity does not automatically mean greater reliability, and shorter voyages do not guarantee faster delivery. With carriers still adjusting networks around the Suez return, and 6% of East–West departures already blanked through mid-December, schedule volatility — not headline capacity — looks set to define the Asia–Europe trade into year-end.