Container spot rates slip as blanked sailings rise before 2027 talks

By Tom Whitfield

Drewry’s World Container Index put Shanghai–Los Angeles spot freight at $7,416 per 40ft, down 2% week on week, while Shanghai–New York fell 3% to $9,020, its lowest level since August. Those headline rates now sit above many prices available to shippers.

Asia–Europe moved more gently. Shanghai–Rotterdam dropped 3% to $3,504 per 40ft, while Shanghai–Genoa held at $4,168 for a third consecutive week. The pattern shows a continued transpacific retreat against a firmer Europe premium.

That difference matters commercially. Freight Right, a US west coast forwarder, said discounts were widespread and virtually no cargo booked at published levels. “Instead, actual moving rates are dictated by carrier promotional discounts and volume-based pricing, as space across Asian origin ports continues to open up,” it said.

What does the rate slide change for shippers?

For shippers, the near-term effect is more booking flexibility and lower executable rates, especially on transpacific. Freight Right expects ocean freight activity to slow further through late November and December, supporting a broadly stable-to-gradually-softer rate outlook. Forwarders must check sailing reliability, not just compare headline numbers.

Reliability is the catch. Freight Right said the cheapest spot rates could carry poor reliability for the remainder of the year. Improved space gives importers more options, but the lowest price may come with greater schedule uncertainty. Forwarders should quote sailing and rollover options alongside the rate.

Blankings tighten the discount story

Carriers have started removing capacity. Drewry’s Container Capacity Insight lists eight blanked sailings for next week, compared with five this week. On transpacific services specifically, Drewry counts eight voyages blanked next week against four this week.

For carriers, blanking limits the price damage and supports a firmer reference point for 2027 contracts. For shippers, it removes fallback capacity if demand strengthens unexpectedly. Forwarders face the sharper trade: a low rate may buy a marginal sailing, not the most dependable one.

Europe’s FAK floor rises modestly

Asia–Europe pricing will not follow transpacific softness one for one. Carriers plan to apply new FAK, or freight all kinds, levels next week: generally $4,500–$5,000 per 40ft on Asia–North Europe shipments and $5,500–$6,600 per 40ft on Asia–Mediterranean routes.

The adjustments are modest and sit around the levels carriers have targeted for the past two months. For shippers, those bands establish a firmer starting point than the softer Shanghai–Rotterdam index. For carriers, they protect revenue before contract negotiations; for forwarders, they give customers a clearer anchor.

Early peak-season surcharges arrive

Peak-season surcharges will test how far that floor can hold. Maersk will add a $1,000 per 40ft surcharge on Asia–North Europe shipments from December 1. CMA CGM moved earlier, with a $1,600 per 40ft Asia–Mediterranean surcharge due November 25.

The dates put the surcharges more than two months ahead of Chinese New Year, which begins February 6. Lars Jensen, founder of Vespucci Maritime, said CMA CGM’s timing was probably appropriate because peak pre-CNY demand will occupy most of January. Shippers need to add the surcharges to base freight; carriers gain an early test of price tolerance.

The 2027 bargaining gap opens

Annual negotiations now sit at the center of the market. On Hapag-Lloyd’s third-quarter earnings call, chief executive Rolf Habben Jansen said the carrier-customer conversations were starting more or less immediately.

He noted that not every participant sees the market the same, but his forecast was direct: “I think we will also see a fairly significant net increase of freight rates going into 2027.”

He expects 2027 contracts to close above 2026 levels and says the bunker component alone will push rates higher. Strong spot freight rates also drove Hapag-Lloyd’s reported results: profits soared despite a market-share loss, while one group measure increased 480% from a year earlier.

The bargaining mechanism is plain. Carriers want a firm spot market to anchor 2027 contract rates; shippers want weak spot pricing after the volatility of much of 2026. That gap will determine whether the announced surcharges hold and how far annual rates rise.

Through year-end, shippers should expect better space and softer transpacific pricing, but the cheapest deals will come with more schedule uncertainty. Carriers, meanwhile, are using blanked capacity, modest FAK increases and early surcharges to preserve their leverage in 2027 contract negotiations.