Carriers add blank sailings as Asia-Europe spot rates rise

By Elena Vasquez

Eight container-ship blank sailings are announced for next week, four times the two scheduled this week, as Drewry’s Container Capacity Insight said the cuts indicate tight capacity.

Carriers are using the blank sailings to stave off a November downturn in pricing. The container shipping orderbook has swollen to 46.5% of the active fleet, a post-2009 peak, as the race for giant vessels heats up.

What is driving Asia-Europe rate increases?

Spot rates rose this week on all three of the largest east-west trades: Asia-Europe, transpacific and transatlantic. After three months of post-peak-season declines, Asia-Europe posted a second consecutive weekly increase.

Drewry’s World Container Index recorded the strongest Asia-European increases, while its rate levels drew on the previous week’s Shanghai Containerized Freight Index:

• Shanghai–Rotterdam: up 3% week on week to $3,632 per 40-foot container.
• Shanghai–Genoa: up 5% to $4,152 per 40-foot container.
• Shanghai–North Europe: $3,547 per 40-foot container in the SCFI assessment.
• Shanghai–Mediterranean: $4,097 per 40-foot container in that SCFI assessment.

Underlying spot pricing remained weak. Linerlytica said: “actual spot rates remain weak with current carrier rates at below the SCFI’s assessment.” The Loadstar also received unsolicited spot offers from Chinese forwarders that matched that weakness.

For shippers and forwarders, the gap means a published benchmark or scheduled FAK may not equal the rate available on the market. For carriers, holding prices depends on removing capacity while the orderbook expands.

What November FAK prices will carriers try?

Carriers are pairing the capacity reductions with new freight-of-all-kinds (FAK) prices on Asia-Europe. Their announced levels for November 1 include:

• MSC: $4,500 per 40-foot container for Asia–North Europe, $5,000 for Asia–west Mediterranean and $5,100 for Asia–east Mediterranean.
• CMA CGM: $4,900 per 40-foot container for Asia–west Mediterranean and $5,200 for Asia–east Mediterranean.

MSC’s $4,500 North Europe charge matched the level it introduced in mid-October, while its Mediterranean rates stood only $500 per 40-foot container above prior levels. Linerlytica expects the new November pricing to fail.

European forwarders reported discounted offers against FAK levels during the first half of October and said they expected the pattern to repeat in November.

For shippers, those discounts provide a lower-cost alternative to the November FAKs. For forwarders, the commercial task is separating a carrier’s published charge from the rate actually available. For carriers, maintaining price discipline depends on whether blanked capacity can outweigh those discounts.

Why is the transpacific market only stabilizing?

Spot gains were more modest, and US west-coast forwarder Freight Right described the market as “a market stabilising.”

• Shanghai–Los Angeles: up 2% week on week to $8,007 per 40-foot container.
• Shanghai–New York: up 1% to $10,166 per 40-foot container.

Drewry recorded two blank sailings for next week, down from six this week, indicating more effective capacity. Strong US import demand continued to support rates, leading the consultancy to expect stability next week.

North American demand remains open to question. Freight Right said the peak shipping season was officially wrapping up and volume was beginning a natural seasonal decline, while modest capacity additions and carrier discounts for market share added pressure.

Freight Right also expects baseline market rates to remain flat through month-end as additional capacity opens. Ocean Network Express offered rates significantly below general market averages, although the lower-cost space was fully booked through October.

A rate around $8,000 per 40-foot container had become common on the Asia–US East Coast trade. Freight Right said space conditions had eased alongside the west coast, ending the extreme tightness observed earlier in the season.

For US shippers, flat baseline rates through month-end offer a planning window before softer volumes and added capacity press the market. Forwarders face a wider spread between baseline and niche offers, while carriers risk needing discounts to defend share as demand recedes.

Where are transatlantic rates heading?

Westbound head-haul rates grew again this week. Drewry’s WCI put Rotterdam–New York up 3% week on week at $3,181 per 40-foot container.

That rate has remained above $3,000 for months and stood 85% higher year on year. For shippers and forwarders, $3,181 per 40-foot container is the current benchmark for westbound head-haul planning. Carriers retain an 85% annual premium over the same period last year.

Next week’s eight blank sailings will test whether Asia-Europe capacity cuts can sustain November increases; transpacific seasonal volume declines and added space point to flat baseline rates, while transatlantic pricing remains anchored above $3,000 and 85% above last year.