Clarksons Research's cross-sector ClarkSea Index has climbed to $75,658 a day, its fourth successive record, while third-quarter average earnings reached $46,384 a day — above the $44,222 recorded in the second quarter of 2008.

The benchmark is signalling exceptional conditions across the major shipping sectors, but the data underneath point to sharply divergent cycle positions. Containers, crude tankers and dry bulk now face very different supply, demand and geopolitical variables. Each is responding in classic late-cycle fashion: owners are ordering, paying up for second-hand tonnage and keeping elderly vessels trading.

How close is the container market to turning?

Containerships are the easiest call. BIMCO chief shipping analyst Niels Rasmussen expects conditions to weaken toward the end of 2026. Even with every 25-year-old ship recycled, BIMCO estimates fleet capacity could still grow 9% annually between 2027 and 2029, against ship demand growth of just 3% to 5%.

The orderbook tells the same story. The containership pipeline now stands at around 15.6m TEU. Linerlytica reports more than 140 ships totalling over 2m TEU have returned through Suez since May, while Sea-Intelligence puts Red Sea routing at roughly 27% normalisation. Rasmussen estimates that 10% of current containership demand could vanish if services complete the shift from the Cape of Good Hope back to the Red Sea.

"We expect container market conditions to begin weakening toward the end of 2026," Rasmussen said.

Charter rates have stayed firm so far, but the spot market is wobbling. Xeneta chief analyst Peter Sand said last week that the Far East-US trade had reached its post-Hormuz peak, while Asia-Europe rates have been retreating since July. The mismatch between large tonnage still scheduled to leave Asian yards, much of it above 12,000 TEU, and a chartered-in fleet skewed below 8,000 TEU makes cascading one of the larger headaches heading into 2027.

Why are tanker prices holding at extreme levels?

Tanker pricing has moved beyond anything resembling a conventional market. VLCC earnings have traded above $1m a day on benchmark routes, with Clarksons' third-quarter averages at $277,995 a day for VLCCs, $228,262 for suezmaxes and $119,189 for aframaxes.

Single-session moves have become extreme. TD20 jumped by $150,000 a day in a single session last week, before moving above $500,000 a day. Affinity notes that average suezmax spot earnings since 2000 are around $35,000 a day.

Second-hand prices match the freight signal. Gibson Shipbrokers has the 2009-built suezmax Karolos at $92m and the 2010-built Tataki at $95m, against a newbuilding benchmark of about $93m. The 2011-built VLCC Sea Leopard reportedly changed hands for around $170m after an earlier $136m deal collapsed, with two other 2011-built VLCCs, Seeb and Samail, going for $160m each. Gibson described appetite for tonnage as "insatiable".

But freight itself is starting to affect delivered crude costs. Poten & Partners calculates that carrying Middle Eastern crude to Asia on a VLCC cost about $1.73 a barrel at the start of the year, or roughly 3% of delivered cost. At recent VLCC rates near $1.3m a day, freight rises to almost $33 a barrel, or 27% of the delivered price.

"As soon as the crude oil market loosens, tanker rates will come off the boil quickly," Poten warned on Friday.

The supply response is also gathering pace. The tanker orderbook stands at about 27% of fleet, with VLCCs at 37% and suezmaxes at 32%. Affinity says fleet growth has already hit 3.8% this year, and BIMCO calculates crude tanker capacity could rise 26% by the end of the decade.

Where does dry bulk sit on the curve?

Dry bulk is the most balanced of the three. The market has had a strong year, particularly for capes, supported by real cargo growth and longer voyages — Guinean exports, firm Chinese demand and a heavier Atlantic-to-Asia weighting.

Maritime Strategies International expects dry bulk trade to grow around 2% next year, with vessel demand up 3.7% and effective supply rising about 4%.

"Conditions are expected to remain firm in 2027, although the balance begins to soften marginally," MSI director Will Fray said.

BIMCO sees bulkers better protected than containers or crude tankers. Around 14% of current capacity is due before the end of the decade, with recycling potential of roughly 8% of today's fleet.

Is shipping close to the top?

Ordering is running close to 2007's record. Owners have contracted around 71m compensated gross tonnes this year, putting 2025 broadly in line with that prior peak. The global orderbook has reached 226m cgt, up about 25% year-on-year. Clarksons expects shipyard output to rise toward 64m cgt next year and 69m cgt in 2028.

The comparison with the last supercycle has limits — today's orderbook is around 23% of the fleet, against more than 50% at the 2008 peak. What is more striking is what is not leaving the fleet. Owners are scrapping almost nothing. Gibson titled its latest recycling commentary "I See No Ships".

Affinity argues gravity will eventually reassert itself, but not immediately.

"Many have been calling the market's demise for at least the last two years," the broker said. "It's not happened yet and it looks like it'll hold up for a while yet. How long? Who knows?"

Containers appear closest to a conventional turn as deliveries meet slowing demand growth and the Suez return. Crude tankers are the wild card: as long as Hormuz keeps tonnage tied up in shuttle voyages and ship-to-ship transfers, rates can hold, but the supply pipeline lengthens by the quarter.