Chicago soybean futures fell nearly 31 cents within hours of Beijing confirming that soybeans stay outside the $30 billion US-China tariff reduction framework — a decision that keeps Brazilian beans structurally favored in the world's largest import market.

Two days after the September 24 meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, China's Foreign Ministry said both countries agreed to a $30 billion tariff reduction framework covering certain products, including corn and soybean seeds — but not soybeans.

CBOT November (X) futures dropped 30.75 cents on September 28 to 1,288.25 cents/bu, while the January (F) contract lost 29.5 cents to 1,303 cents/bu.

What does the exclusion mean for US exporters?

US market participants largely shrugged off the decision. State buyers Sinograin and COFCO, which traders say remain active in the US market, have always been exempt from the tariffs.

"[The addition of soybeans] matters, but not to that extent," a trader in the FOB Gulf market said. "State buyers have always been exempted."

"I fully expected that [exclusion of soybeans]," a second FOB Gulf trader said. "It's not surprising, because China already has a deal for 25 million mt worth roughly $15 billion, and including beans would have consumed half of the 30 billion trade package."

That trader added: "Removing the tariffs would not make US soybeans any more competitive to materially change trade flows."

Sentiment diverged downstream. Sources in the CIF New Orleans market said soybeans "would have been a nice add" to the tariff-reduction list because it would have boosted movement in the barge market on the Mississippi system.

One US crusher went further, welcoming the status quo: "I hope they raise tariffs. I don't want any soybeans leaving the US" — a stance reflecting domestic processors' appetite to keep supplies at home.

Why does Brazil see an upside?

S&P Global analysts and Brazilian market sources view the continued tariffs as supportive for non-US exporters.

"I think it's slightly beneficial or at least neutral for all major soybean exporters outside the US," principal crop analyst Aaron Gerdts said, "as it will continue to limit US exports to China to a level the US-China governments agree to, in this case 25 million metric tons."

Brazilian market voices agree, though the timing blunts the effect.

"The tariffs remaining in place are generally viewed as supportive for Brazilian soybean prices and premiums," a Brazilian trader said. "But the impact is more limited at this stage of the season than it would have been earlier in the year."

"Brazil is nearing the end of its 2025-26 export campaign," a second Brazilian source said. "And old-crop availability has become increasingly tight, with farmer-selling slowing down and crushers competing for remaining supplies."

Is Brazil's crop size the real swing factor?

Analysts at S&P Global CERA argue tariffs are only one variable. Brazil's production level could ultimately determine how much China needs American beans.

"If Brazil's production remains high, I do not think China would need US beans," the CERA analyst said.

S&P Global Energy CERA forecasts Brazil's 2026-27 soybean production at 177 million mt, down from the 188 million mt forecast for the 2025-26 season. An 11-million-tonne shortfall of that scale would force China back toward the US Gulf at some point in 2026.

Where are prices now?

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed SOYBEX FOB New Orleans for November shipment at $520.93/mt on September 29. The outright CIF New Orleans price for October shipment stood at $515.79/mt, while SOYBEX FOB Santos for November loading was assessed at $526.47/mt — a premium of nearly $5.50/mt over US Gulf beans.

For bulk freight markets, the calculus is straightforward: as long as tariffs cap US-China flows near 25 million mt and Brazilian old-crop supplies tighten, fixture volumes on the Santos–China lane hold pricing power into the new-crop transition, with the size of Brazil's 2026-27 harvest the decisive variable for Gulf export demand next year.