The US and China extended their trade truce by two months and agreed to cut tariffs on $30 billion in bilateral imports, giving shippers and forwarders a brief reprieve before peak season unwinds.

Last week's Trump-Xi meeting in Washington pushed the prior agreement — set to expire November 10 — into early 2026. Both governments will lower duties on counterpart imports to most-favored-nation levels once required legal procedures clear.

"The US only agreed to two months because China still needs to fulfill some of its earlier commitments to purchase US agricultural goods," the US Treasury Secretary said.

What does the tariff cut actually cover?

The US list spans nearly 80 product entries, with toys the largest single category by value. China's reciprocal package covers more than 1,600 entries, mostly agricultural products and raw commodities.

The $30 billion reduction is modest against the more than $400 billion in annual two-way goods trade. For US importers and end consumers of the affected goods, the rollback trims landed costs on items that absorbed stacked Section 301 and MFN duties since 2018.

The truce also likely postpones US port call fees on China-linked vessels, though the US Trade Representative has not issued an official deferral.

How tight is Trans-Pacific capacity?

Trans-Pacific spot rates to the US West Coast climbed to $8,400 per FEU last week — a new 2026 high. East Coast prices held at roughly $9,600/FEU, $200/FEU below their late August peak.

Resilient import demand kept pressure on rates through month-end. Carriers blanked additional sailings over Golden Week and into late October as peak season finally winds down, and have trimmed allocations for some contracted forwarders.

How long will congestion hold rates up?

Sea Intelligence estimates port congestion is tying up more than 8% of global container capacity. The analyst warned the backlog could take up to ten months to fully unwind.

That strain, layered with higher fuel costs tied to the Strait of Hormuz closure, will likely sustain an elevated rate floor even during slack-demand periods. Carriers will defend the floor through additional blankings and GRI pushes into the next quarter.

What about the Panama Canal and Asia-Europe?

The Panama Canal Authority will restore Neopanamax transits to the normal ten per day in mid-October and lift maximum draft to 49 feet, reversing a one-transit cut and one-foot draft reduction imposed in late August. Improved rainfall enabled the easing, though the authority warned that El Niño could trigger new restrictions if the rainy season falters into January.

Asia-Europe container rates slipped 9% to roughly $3,400/FEU for North Europe and 7% to $3,600/FEU for the Mediterranean. Carriers are gradually expanding Red Sea transits, adding effective capacity to the lane and easing congestion at hubs such as Rotterdam and Antwerp.

Spot prices on both routes have fallen $3,000-$4,000/FEU since the July peak but remain about 50% higher than a year earlier. Some lines are already announcing rate increases for late October to test the floor.

What is the air freight market doing?

The Freightos Air Index global benchmark rose 5% week-on-week and stayed more than 30% above year-ago levels on elevated jet fuel prices. Far East-North America air rates climbed 5% to about $6.80 per kilogram; Far East-Europe prices slipped 4% to $4.14/kg.

For carriers, forwarders, and shippers, the trajectory into year-end runs through a higher baseline — built on persistent Far East congestion, lingering Hormuz-driven fuel costs, and an unconfirmed USTR decision on China-linked vessel port charges.